Stephen Zoepf is the executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University.

To kick off the forum, Stephen Zoepf, executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University gave a presentation called “Electric Vehicles: Adapting to a Changing Marketplace” to share his insights on what future markets will look like and implications for automakers, suppliers as well as consumers.  

Here are the key takeaways.

The Future is Going to Look Very Different

According to a report by RethinkX, an independent research group, 6 trillion U.S. passenger miles will be driven in 2030, up 50 percent from 2021. Of those miles, 95 percent will be driven in self-driving, electric and shared vehicles and only 5 percent of those miles will be driven by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

The report goes on to say that autonomous EVs (A-EV) will make up 60 percent of the U.S vehicle stock, and those vehicles will be part of a shared-mobility service. As more people start to share cars, the overall number of vehicles on U.S. roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

SEE ALSO: Going Autonomous: The Transformation of the Transportation Industry

The change is already happening. In 2016, shared-mobility companies such as Uber and Lyft drove 500,000 passengers per day in New York City, which is triple the number of passengers from 2015. Today, more and more automakers like Tesla and GM are also entering the shared-mobility market.

EVs are already becoming prominent in major cities around the world. (Source: Time)

The findings illustrate a future where people drive more miles with fewer cars, which are fueled by electricity, and shared instead of owned. It’s a radical visualization of the future, but one that is driven by economic forces.

By 2021, shared vehicles will be 4 to 10 times cheaper per mile than private vehicles, and American households will save an average of USD 5600 every year by switching to shared EVs from cars fueled by gas, according to RethinkX.

Zoepf shared another report by ARK investment Management which echoes the finding above- in the next ten years, people will drive three times more kilometers using half the number of cars and the number of EVs on the road will increase 10 fold.

What It Means for Car Manufacturers and Suppliers

A shrinking vehicle fleet consisting of mostly EVs can only mean one thing: a major disruption to the current automotive market.  

Right now, the average lifecycle of a car in the U.S. is 11 years. However, the majority of a car’s total mileage is driven in its early years. It’s the same for shared vehicles, but they are driven about 80,000- 90,000 km per year, 10 times the distance of privately-owned cars. What this shows is a compression of the vehicle lifespan in its first 3 to 4 years.

These statistics pose critical concerns for automakers.

Will overall vehicle sales decrease in the coming future? According to Zoepf, that’s the wrong question to ask. Instead, automakers should be asking “will I make money?” Automakers have a couple of choices. They can either adapt early on and manufacture EVs and/or A-EVs at a competitive price, or become a shared-mobility provider. Early movers such as Tesla, GM and Volvo are already shifting their business strategies to fit these models.

GM recently launched Maven, a car-sharing service. (Source: The Verge)

Another question to ask is how these trends will affect vehicle design. With shortened vehicle life-cycles, manufacturers can either design cars to last only 3 to 4 years for quick replacements, or opt for the aviation model where the vehicle will be built to last, but the interior parts, such as seats, will be replaced frequently. Whatever route manufactures choose to take, gaining a competitive edge in vehicle and service quality early on will be key.

What Will This Mean for Vehicle Material Suppliers?

If building cars to last is no longer a primary priority, will car makers downgrade their materials? The short answer is not a chance.

Through a customer survey study Zoepf conducted of 60,000 Zipcar customers, he showed that the number one factor when choosing a car is safety. However, there is no one, ideal model or type of car that is preferred in a shared mobility framework. The purpose of the trip determines the type of vehicle, and the success of a shared mobility service provider will depend on the variety of cars it can provide – all with competitive safety ratings.

POSCO ICT already has ChargEV stations set up across Korea. (Source: POSCO ICT)

The supplier’s role will be to continue providing high-quality materials that can boost the safety and cost competitiveness of future vehicles. Steel suppliers have to keep developing lightweight and high-strength steels like POSCO GIGA STEEL, and research new materials that can boost the competitiveness of EVs such as POSCO’s Hyper NO for motor cores, battery materials and POSCO ICT’s EV charging service and infrastructure.

There remain numerous challenges that lie ahead for a greener and safer future with EVs and A-EVs, and it might take longer than experts predict for lawmakers, corporations and consumers to all agree on an optimal mobility model. However, change is already underway and automakers and suppliers alike need to strategize and adapt early on to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities.

For more information on how advanced automotive steel can benefit automakers looking for lightweight and sustainable steel solutions, take a look at our infographic on POSCO GIGA STEEL or read the full report here. 

Cover photo courtesy of GOV.UK.

Take a look at three of the ways transportation is restructuring itself for faster, more sustainable travel. Some are closer to realization than others, but all of them are changing the way we think about movement. When realized, all of these ideas will have an impact far beyond what we can see now.

The Hyperloop – Fast & Frictionless

An Idea by Elon Musk

In 2013, Elon Musk came up with the idea for the Hyperloop as he grew frustrated with the high-speed rail being developed in California at that time. He called it “both one of the most expensive per mile and one of the slowest in the world.” Musk said, “It would be great to have an alternative to flying or driving, but obviously only if it is actually better than flying or driving.”

He imagined capsules, zooming by at speeds faster than any train or plane, that would allow him to get to San Francisco from LA in 35 minutes. The basic concept was that the capsules would float through partially evacuated steel tubes propelled by fans and electromagnets. Because there would be less friction from air and rails, there could be significant increases in speed and durability, while decreasing reliance on fuel at the same time.

Workers install Hyperloop’s stator blocks at our test and development site in North Las Vegas. (Photo courtesy of Hyperloop One)

Because Musk was so involved transforming the space industry with SpaceX, the auto industry with Tesla, and the energy industry with SolarCity, he did not seem to have much time for Hyperloop. So, he developed a 58-page outline of his ideas and left it to others to develop. And they have.

Hyperloop One Unveils Testing Site

To fulfill this improbable dream, a handful of startups have stepped in – one of them being California-based Hyperloop Technologies. They have been building a test site, called DevLoop, 30 minutes outside of Las Vegas in the Nevada desert that was unveiled last week to the public. According to their press release, DevLoop is a 500-meter full-scale Hyperloop test structure weighing over one million kilograms. The Hyperloop One tube measures 3.3 meters in diameter and they are expected to perform their first full test sometime in the first half of 2017.

Hyperloop unveiled its first test site, the DevLoop on March 7. Later this year, they will run their first test of the Hyperloop. (Photo courtesy of Hyperloop One)

In November, Hyperloop Tech signed an agreement with the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority to evaluate building a Hyperloop between Dubai and Abu Dhabi. When completed, a commute that once took several hours will take just 12 minutes.

All parties involved realize the costs are going to be high. Creating a new form of transportation infrastructure is not simple and building large steel semi-vacuum tubes over ground (or under) is technologically difficult requiring trained engineers and highly skilled workers. To offset this, Hyperloop Tech is focusing some of its energy in attracting industrial freight clients.

The Future of Freight

One of Hyperloop Tech’s Transportation Economists, Dapeng Zhang, recently presented on transformational freight explaining that their “vision at Hyperloop One is to connect cities into mega-regions, and turn metro areas into metro stops. This will inevitably improve the efficiency of freight supply chains. By connecting two distant metros, Hyperloop One creates a geographical cluster which could help reduce inventory costs, promote even more just-in-time strategies, and expand same-day delivery service areas.”

A Hyperloop steel tube awaits entry into the tube processing building, where they are painted and prepped for use. (Photo courtesy of Hyperloop One)

Whether or not this is completely feasible is still up for debate, but it is exciting to see the strides being made in this type of supersonic transportation technology. Other developments such as electric cars, autonomous vehicles, and SkyTran (below) will help us move short distances, but ideas like the Hyperloop are needed to connect the larger metropolitan areas.

SkyTran – Personal Rapid Transit

Apart from the Hyperloop and autonomous driving technology, other personal mobility developments are being made. One of those is SkyTran, a company working to develop a personal rapid transit system that carries people in autonomous pods. Located near Mountain View, California, SkyTran has focused its efforts on relieving congestion in cities by creating a system that rides on an elevated monorail. It is both quick and efficient, and unlike the Hyperloop, it is nearing completion with plans to open in Israel, Nigeria, and France.

This concept image shows a drop-off point for one of SkyTran’s capsules. (Photo courtesy of SkyTran)

Using what is called maglev technology (magnetic levitation), the SkyTran uses electromagnets (similar in concept to the Hyperloop) to propel itself forward (up to 155 mph) while using little to no electricity. SkyTran says that when the pod reaches 10 mph, it can continue to glide and accelerate without any extra power. SkyTran’s CEO says the pods can on the same amount of electricity as two hair dryers.

SkyTran capsules are elevated above the city streets avoiding traffic and giving them the freedom to move at high speeds. (Photo courtesy of SkyTran)

In addition to being highly efficient to operate, SkyTran benefits in its low upfront costs. Unlike the Hyperloop, which requires rather large infrastructure and maintenance costs to ensure proper functionality of the pipe’s vacuum and propulsion system, SkyTran is projected to be a much more economic option. Because the system is set up above the streets, its footprint is small – requiring only an 18-inch steel pole to hold the steel and aluminum capsules.

The company estimates that it will only cost about USD 13 million per mile to build, compared to a subway system that can cost around USD 160 million for the same distance. Because of the low upfront costs, SkyTran believes that malls, hotels, and other private businesses will want to build their own offshoot lines – not only for their customers but because it will be profitable.

POSCO’s Advanced Auto Steel in Future Cars

Autonomous, connected, electric. These are the common buzzwords that come to mind when we think about future trends in personal transportation. At CES earlier this year, seemingly everyone had their own solution to made driving cars more connected and safer, and with less human involvement.

Nissan and BMW unveiled plans to use Microsoft’s personal assistant technology, Cortana, with their cars. Honda became the first major manufacturer to develop an electric concept car specifically designed for ride-sharing. And as for self-driving cars – Nissan announced it would bring autonomous driving support to its Leaf electric car, Hyundai introduced one that would be affordable enough for the masses, and Audi announced a partnership with Nvidia to bring self-driving cars to market by 2020.

At the 2016 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS), POSCO showcased its advanced automotive steel products that are both strong and lightweight, making them uniquely suited for the electric cars of the future.

The weight of POSCO’s advanced auto steel is about 26.4 percent lighter compared to that used in most mid-sized vehicles. But despite being lighter, it received the highest level possible ratings from Europe and North America’s automobile collision evaluation Institute, Euro NCAP and IIHS.

In addition, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), which measures the amount of CO2 discharged throughout the entire life cycle from material production to recycling, showed that emissions from the internal combustion engine body were 50 percent lower. Electric car emissions were also decreased by about 9 percent.

POSCO’s advanced auto steel is uniquely developed to be lighter and stronger for the cars of the future

The displayed products included the new PosM Steel and hot press forming steel (HPF). PosM Steel is a “dream material” for car manufacturers because it is five times stronger than other steel in terms of machinability while also having an impact absorption of up to 100 kg per mm². While many steelmakers have been developing PosM Steel type steel, it has never been produced on a commercial scale before. In addition, POSCO’s HPF steel is stronger than many other steel alloys making it a good solution for manufacturers looking to improve car safety.

POSCO currently supplies advanced auto steel sheets to car and component manufacturers, including Toyota, Volkswagen, and GM. POSCO has 10 automobile production plants and 24 machining centers around the globe. In addition to providing its World Premium Products, POSCO also provides Solution Marketing services that offer customized technologies developed in-house (such as welding and molding) that are customized to fit a customer’s unique needs depending on the product and manufacturing process.

Innovations in the transportation industry require big ideas, big investments, and new technological advancements. Right now, all of these seem to be coming together for what is expected to be some big changes. If the investors at Hyperloop and SkyTran have their way, pretty soon we will be able to travel across Europe on a Hyperloop, transfer to a SkyTran, and arrive in our hotel in less than an hour.

*Cover photo courtesy of Hyperloop One.

Advancements in electric cars, autonomous driving, car connectivity, and AI were on full display. Nissan and BMW unveiled plans to use Microsoft’s personal assistant technology, Cortana, with their cars. Honda became the first major manufacturer to develop an electric concept car specifically designed for ride-sharing. And as for self-driving cars – Nissan announced it would bring autonomous driving support to its Leaf electric car, Hyundai introduced one that would be affordable enough for the masses, and Audi announced a partnership with Nvidia to bring self-driving cars to market by 2020.

With all of the focus on electric cars and autonomous driving, it is easy to forget the basic building blocks that are needed to make these cars a reality. As Toyota Research Institute CEO Gill Pratt noted at CES, “Historically humans have zero tolerance of death by machine,” and for further adoption by the public, safety must be reinforced in autonomous vehicles. Increased safety in cars often goes hand-in-hand with heavier materials that can withstand more pressure. However, the push for more fuel efficient electric cars is pushing the industry to build with more lightweight components.

Car manufacturers are working to find the right balance between strength, weight, and price. The EPA has estimated that reducing a vehicle’s weight by 45kg (100lbs) will improve fuel efficiency by 1%, and while more lightweight materials do exist in aluminum and magnesium, they are often too cost-prohibitive for general use.

POSCO Body Concept Electric Vehicle

POSCO’s PBC-EV is both safe and lightweight

On this front, POSCO has been working to develop solutions for car manufacturers. The PBC-EV, or POSCO Body Concept Electric Vehicle, is one product of that research as POSCO sought to create a lighter car with the same strength and safety that is expected in today’s modern car market. POSCO focused on two main points when developing this lightweight car body. The first was the application of a combination of POSCO’s most advanced steels including TRIP, PosMCT950E, and PosMCT980B. Secondly, POSCO optimized existing construction methods and worked to introduce new techniques in order to both lighten and strengthen the body of the automobile. With its PBC-EV, POSCO was able to reduce weight by 26% while still maintaining the highest levels of body strength.

Magnesium technology

POSCO materials were used in the design of Renault’s EOLAB concept car

Many in the auto industry are setting their sights on magnesium as the future of car manufacturing. Magnesium can be easily molded and it is both lightweight and strong. Due to its high price, car makers have not fully embraced the move to magnesium yet, but POSCO is already preparing for this probability. Last month, POSCO’s World Premium Materials (WPM) – Magnesium Business Division organized a seminar with industry experts and automotive engineering students to discuss the future of magnesium in car manufacturing. Experts in magnesium, molding, bonding, and surface treatment were invited to speak about the application of magnesium technology in automobiles and students gave presentations on their own experience developing race cars.

Even though cars have been around since the late 19^th century, new ideas continue to force the industry to adapt and change. And whether it is optimizing existing manufacturing processes or working to utilize technologies for the future, POSCO remains committed to finding innovations in the auto industry.

Don’t miss any of the exciting stories from The Steel Wire – subscribe via email today.