The Demographic Cliff

Economic forecaster and author of “The Demographic Cliff,” Harry Dent, says people between the ages of 45 and 49 are typically the heads of families and spend the most money on things like housing, cars and appliances. As populations age, fewer people will make up the prime spending age group of 45 to 49, and there will be a drop in consumption. Dent calls this the “demographic cliff,” or the “consumption cliff”. The world has seen proof of this theory in places like Japan, Western Europe and the U.S., where economic downturn has come at times of a population downturn.

The Japanese stock market crashed in the early 90s, and they have yet to fully recover. (Source: Huffington Post)

Japan, for example, was one of the first nations to experience a demographic cliff in the early 90s. It was also the time when its stocks and real estate prices fell 60 percent. Those prices never rebounded. Since then, the country has spiraled into debt (the world’s highest at 246 percent of GDP) with an increasingly aging workforce and stagnant economy. From 2010 to 2015, Japan’s population decreased by almost 1 million people, and the government is working to prevent the population from falling below 100 million by 2060.

The U.S. 2008 Financial Crisis came shortly after its demographic cliff. (Source: Reuters)

Dent also argued that the American baby boomers of the early 60s peaked in 2007, at their highest spending age, and then the economy experienced a downturn, in the form of the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, the U.S. government has added USD 8.4 trillion in debt. Although the reasons for the 2008 crisis are complex, Dent does prove a point: demographics have a huge impact on economics.

Falling Steel Consumption

As it was with Japan and the U.S., consumption will decrease in industries critical to the steel market. In Japan, steel consumption decreased 81 percent from 1995. According to a report by POSCO Research Institute, construction accounts for 42 percent of total steel demand and the auto industry accounts for 18.5 percent. Decreased spending on homes and cars due to the demographic cliff will have a significant impact on the steel industry. Decreased demand in other industries such as machinery and home appliances will also affect steel demand.

The construction industry will be the hardest-hit by a demographic cliff. (Source: CNBC)

Moreover, manufacturers will be faced with the problem of a shrinking workforce. Those entering the workforce will do so with the burden of sustaining government programs with a larger portion of their paychecks, and employers will start to notice the gaps not only in age but experience and skill as well. With fewer people entering the workforce, employers will be forced to outsource jobs and governments may factor in more lenient immigration policies to fill the gaps.

How can Steelmakers Prepare for the Future?

Although there is no quick solution to the aging population and low birthrates, steelmakers can start preparing for a demographic cliff in two ways. Enter markets with growing populations and introduce smart technology to fill the human labor gap.

In developing countries in Asia and Africa, there are little signs of population and economic stagnation. As those countries invest in their infrastructure and start to consume more homes, cars and appliances, steel will be in high demand, more than those countries can produce domestically.

India’s solar energy industry will lead to an increase in demand for steel. (Source: WLE)

India is one of the countries with a growing population. The government is undergoing numerous projects to boost its economy and prepare for growth, including the project to boost its solar energy market. The Indian government has plans to invest USD 100 billion and 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity for the country by 2022. Steel is a vital part of solar panels and suppliers like POSCO are already partnering with Indian firms to provide the leading material and technology for India to meet its growing renewable energy demand. POSCO also has partnerships in the U.S., Bangladesh, Myanmar, Uzbekistan and more to help each country fill their supply gaps.

In order to fill the domestic labor shortage, POSCO is incorporating leading AI technology, IoT and big data to its smart factories.

It is true that today’s developed nations have reached, or are heading towards a demographic cliff. Japan is a classic example of how detrimental a shrinking and aging population can be for a country’s economy. Governments and industries have to start factoring in demographics to their long-term strategies and plan for a changing future.     

Cover photo courtesy of 24×7 Daily.

Here’s a look at how steel is produced in a steel mill or factory, and what the “smartization” of steel factories will look like.

So, how is steel made?

Iron Making

To make steel, manufacturers first need molten iron. Molten iron comes from two raw materials; iron ore and coal. Iron ore is converted into sinter ore in a sintering plant and coal is converted into raw coke using a coke oven. The processed materials are poured into a blast furnace where hot air reaching 1200℃ is blown in from the bottom through tuyeres, causing a chemical reaction. This process oxidizes the coke and reduces the sintered ore, creating molten iron.   

Steelmaking

In the steelmaking stage, the molten iron is transported to the steel making plant via a torpedo car, where the liquid is poured into a converter. Then, oxygen is blown into the converter to burn off all the impurities. All that is left is pure molten steel.

Continuous Casting

This is where steel finally becomes solidified into different shapes such as slab, bloom and billet. Liquid steel is poured into molds and cooled as it passes through a continuous casting machine until it solidifies into the desired shape.

Hot steel passes through rolling machines to be rolled into specific sizes and thicknesses. (Source: Global Sourcing Blog)

Rolling Process

During the rolling process, steel is heated once more to achieve various sizes and thicknesses. Steel slabs are heated to over 1100℃, then pass through rolling machines. This results in hot-rolled coils that can be shaped for different uses such as thick plates. They can also be processed into long, wire-shaped rods for billets. Often, the hot-rolled coils are rolled at room temperature for cold-rolled coils. Cold-rolled coils can be fabricated to produce galvanized and electrical steel products.

“Smartizating” these processes will involve converging IoT, Big Data, and AI to connect the different facilities, IT systems and workers in order to collect and analyze data for optimization.

POSCO is “smartizing” the steel-production process

POSCO is a steel company looking to lead the industry in adopting smart factories. CEO Kwon Ohjoon made “smartization” one of the 4 key priorities for POSCO starting back in 2014, and Kwon will continue to increase those investments.

POSCO smart factory incorporates artificial intelligence to enhance safety and efficiency.

SEE ALSO: How Smart Factories are Changing the Manufacturing Industry

In 2016, POSCO established its Smart Solution Council in order to research AI, big data and IoT applications. In the same year, POSCO ICT’s smart factory platform, PosFrame, was completed and installed in POSCO’s Gwangyang Steel Mill. PosFrame allows engineers to collect and monitor big data. So far, the company has saved over USD 14 million by incorporating the new technology in its production practices.

Here are some other features of POSCO’s Smart Factory.

POSCO’s Smart Blast Furnace

The Pohang Blast Furnace No.3 became a smart furnace in 2017, following a 102-day repair period. The furnace is now equipped with automated sensors that monitor and control its internal conditions using AI technology. Smart sensors monitor the blast furnace for factors like raw material quality and ventilator status, preventing breakdowns and ensuring a much longer lifecycle.

SEE ALSO: Will Artificial Intelligence Lead to Breakthroughs in the Steel Industry?

Worker Safety

Smart sensors can be used for more than just process monitoring. The company is working toward a full implementation of smart sensors for safety purposes, using IoT to create a better working environment.

Steel manufacturing involves high temperatures and high pressure levels, which is dangerous for workers who come in close contact with the equipment. With smart sensors monitoring all of the factory information, workers will instead be monitoring operation from a safe distance.

Workers in POSCO’s smart factory wear smart sensors for safety.

Wearable sensors, in conjunction with factory smart sensors, will be able to detect if and when workers are approaching potentially dangerous areas, and will alert them. These sensors will also detect and alert with regards to any impending accidents, or life-threatening situations like gas leaks, explosions, or fires.

Also, dust, sulfur, and nitrogen compounds will be removed via a high-plasma method, creating an eco-friendly steel plant and a healthier environment for workers.

POSCO will continue to add more smart features to its steel mills to increase efficiency, safety and sustainability. In efforts to learn and implement new technologies, POSCO CEO Kwon Ohjoon visited GE’s smart factories to learn about their technology earlier this year. POSCO also held the 2017 Smart POSCO Forum to share its insights with clients and affiliates, all as part of its expanding smartization efforts.

The fourth industrial revolution is heralded by big data, the internet of things, artificial intelligence, virtual reality and augmented reality, 3D printing and other technological innovations. It’s happening at rapid speed. The steel industry needs to keep up and take advantage of all that this revolution has to offer.

However, the industrial revolution did not happen overnight, and advancements in human development traces back to the Iron Age.  

The Iron Age and How it Impacted Civilization

After the Bronze Age was the Iron Age. People started using iron and steel for tools. This was a huge shift for the world, and helped improve nearly all spheres of life from the spread of written language to more effective agricultural practices. Iron offered more choice. People could forge this material into whatever they needed for tools, weapons, or ornaments and decor.

Blacksmiths would have used tools like this during the Iron Age.

Tools and weapons created during this era often used steel, which was a vast improvement on the bronze items from the previous age. Items made from steel were just as light as bronze, but stronger, so users were able to get more out of each item they created. The strength of these tools made it possible for farmers to plant and harvest more land, faster. It enabled people to sell or trade for livelihood.

The Iron Age is a great example of how the right materials can make life better for everyone.

The New Structure of Steel

As the world moves through the fourth industrial revolution, it is evident the same thing is happening. Instead of improvements in specific materials and tools, however, technology is changing things.

The steel production process can be completed autonomously if the fourth industrial revolution continues the way it is going. This means that manufacturers will be able to have very detailed and thorough control over production, using smart technology that will factor in every element from the surrounding environment to minute details of the material itself. The steel production process will be able to use real-time data to optimize every facet of operations, saving money and time.

Robot arms with artificial intelligence take part in the steel production process. (Source: Telenor Connexion)

The steel value chain is affected by changes in the provision of after-sales service, owing to new technology. Manufacturers can use smart technology to track how users interact with their completed products and offer better customer service as a result.

Again, real-time information comes into play, allowing steel companies to see exactly how orders are being created, fulfilled and used, as it is happening. Customer needs are met with ease and speed, all tracked and analyzed digitally.

Competition in the steel industry will be affected by this revolution, too. Competitors can see how other companies are using big data and automation to save money and offer a better customer experience, and use those details to revolutionize their offerings. Online steel transaction platforms make this transparency even more accessible, for companies and clients alike.

Implications on the Steel Industry

To keep up with this revolution, and make the most of it, steel companies need to understand the implications on the industry and plan for the future. New technology is only going to become more widespread, more common, and more advanced. Companies need to be ready to react.

Integrating technology and smart software is the ideal way for steel companies, and the industry at large, to take advantage of this new revolution and use it to create better products and better customer relationships.

To get an idea of how to best integrate new tech into existing steel practices, POSCO’s smart steel factory is a prime example, currently being tested at the Gwangyang Steel Mill. POSCO’s smart factories will collect and analyze all of the microdata generated in the steel production process, to determine the cause of every event that impacts quality or production in general.

An image of how POSCO’s Smart Factory will be run.

From facilities to energy and environment, to safety and conditions, the smart factory will monitor everything. And it will respond accordingly to make the best quality steel possible.

Self-learning artificial intelligence ensures that the process of steelmaking is carefully controlled, with adjustments made in real-time to directly and positively impact the result. The smart factories will use technology to fill the gaps where human capabilities are simply no match for software.

The world has come a long way since the Iron Age and through the various industrial revolutions. In the current fourth industrial revolution, steel companies have to take advantage of new technology and innovations by figuring out ways to apply them to steelmaking processes. POSCO has made this a top priority as it continues to research, educate and implement smart technologies to its production processes and materials and will lead the way for steel companies to follow through the fourth industrial revolution.   

Cover photo courtesy of Manufacturing Global.