The U.S. is headed towards a major shortage of truck drivers. (Source: The New York Times)

However, the U.S. is short of about 30,000 to 35,000 drivers for every 750,000 trucks, and the number of driver shortages may reach up to 245,000 by 2022. That’s because right now, the average age of truck drivers in the U.S. is 55, and potential new recruits are choosing to sign up for construction or manufacturing jobs instead.

All this leads to climbing prices for freight transportation. Last December, at the peak of holiday deliveries, U.S. companies saw the highest monthly average rate for freight transportation since 2010. The high operation costs and lower profit margins are putting a heavy strain on industries. Heading into 2018, companies have to compete for carriers as there is just one truck available for every 12 loads.

As a result, Major automakers are heavily invested in autonomous electric freight trucks such as Tesla, Volvo and Daimler, and there are many proponents of an eco-friendly, safe and driverless future for freight transportation. However, autonomous freight trucks are not a realistic option for companies just yet. At a time of transition between the old and the new, there is a serious lack of capacity in freight transportation, and companies are left to deal with the higher costs for delivery.  

But good news right around the corner

Although the driver shortage is a major concern, it is a natural phenomenon in the transition towards a safer, more sustainable and more efficient freight transportation industry.

Uber’s autonomous freight trucks are in operation with a human safety driver on the highways of Arizona. (Source: Future Car)

Already, Uber has its autonomous trucks on the highways of Arizona. Every truck does have a human driver present to take over anytime, and the company uses transfer hubs to transfer goods between highways and local roads. Autonomous trucks are the safest and most efficient for use on highways, so human drivers transport goods from highways to the final destination. The company is working to operate without human backup drivers in the near future.

Waymo’s autonomous freight trucks have gone through almost a decade of testing and is now delivering supplies for Google in Atlanta. (Source: Wired)

Waymo is another company with autonomous trucks already in operation. Just this month, the company’s autonomous freight trucks started transferring equipment for Google data centers in Atlanta.

Embark was the first company to complete a successful coast to coast run with an autonomous truck. (Source: Micro Power Grids)

Embark also has its autonomous trucks in operation. Earlier this year, the company made a successful 2,400-mile trip from California to Florida with a human safety driver on board. The company has plans to commercialize its services in the coming years.

SEE ALSO: 6 Cities On the Road to a Driverless Future

Speeding up delivery

Numerous other automotive and tech companies besides those mentioned above are getting ready for autonomous freight transportation. The faster autonomous freight trucks are able to operate commercially, the faster industries can cut costs, improve delivery times and reduce their carbon footprint.

This means software technology, high-capacity batteries as well as the right automotive materials will play a crucial role in the future of the freight transportation industry, as well as in related industries. This transformation will open up new business opportunities for automakers, software companies as well as steel manufacturers like POSCO.

For autonomous truck manufacturers looking for ultra-lightweight yet super strong materials for optimal fuel efficiency, POSCO developed POSCO GIGA STEEL. The advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) material is 3 times stronger and 3.5 times cheaper than aluminum. Steel is also 100 percent recyclable and an electric vehicle made of AHSS requires 30 percent less energy than aluminum throughout its entire lifecycle. POSCO also developed a premium non-oriented electrical steel called Hyper NO for the most advanced and sustainable electric motors.

SEE ALSO: Why Electrical Steel Can Make All The Difference In EV Motors

POSCO also works with its auto partners to research and provide customized technology and materials solutions for their autonomous EVs. In the midst of a critical shortage of truck drivers, POSCO hopes to speed up autonomous EV adoption both for personal and commercial transportation and aid the transition into a more efficient and environmentally sustainable economy.

Cover photo courtesy of Time.

SEE ALSO: Ask an Expert: Electric Vehicles and the Future of the Automotive Market

However, implementing autonomous transportation systems is no easy task, from perfecting the technology to sorting out legal matters. Take a look at these 6 early-adapting cities around the world that have embarked on the road to driverless transportation systems.

Singapore

Last year, the city-state became the first in the world to launch an automated taxi service. While many companies such as Uber have been testing driverless taxi systems, no one has launched a working model yet. Singapore’s autonomous taxi service launched by nuTonomy only has six cars, but the company has plans to have a full fleet of driverless taxis on Singapore roads by 2018. For now, the fleet consists of modified Renault Zoe and Mitsubishi i-MiEV electrics that have an emergency driver at the wheel and researchers who ride in the back to gather data. The service is expected to drastically reduce the number of vehicles on Singapore’s congested roads.

Singapore is the first city in the world to have a running autonomous taxi service. (Source: Auto Evolution)

Los Angeles

After much delay, city officials finally made it legal to test driverless vehicles in L.A. this year, and by 2020, the city could have fully autonomous vehicles operating on its roads. So far, 43 companies such as General Motors, Apple and Uber have testing permits in California, which means that a driver must be at the wheel, prepared to take over in case of an emergency. The Department of Motor Vehicles will finalize the rules and regulations surrounding autonomous vehicle testing in 2018. Autonomous transportation is a sector that will continue to generate much investment, and L.A. was already losing business to other cities in the U.S. due to its regulatory restrictions. With the new guidelines in place, the city can expect to be bustling with startup activity and innovative solutions to its transportation challenges.

For now, L.A. law requires drivers at the wheel of every autonomous vehicle. (Source: Los Angeles Times)

Munich

Germany is home to the most advanced automakers in the world, and in August 2017, German lawmakers drew up the guidelines for operating autonomous vehicles. Under the new guidelines, all autonomous vehicle software must be programmed in such a way that human life will be protected at any cost, over animals and property. Germany’s Transportation Ministry is the first in the world to draw up such guidelines for automated driving, and wide-implementation of autonomous transportation is expected to follow, starting with Munich.

Munich Airport now provides autonomous shuttle services between Terminal 2 and a satellite facility. (Source: Bombardier)

Recently, Munich Airport launched an autonomous shuttle service that links Terminal 2 to a new infield satellite facility with an underground train. The trains are called INNOVIA Automated People Mover (APM) 300 and were built by Bombardier. The train tunnel is 382 meters and will have the capacity to move 10,900 passengers every hour in either direction.

Las Vegas

Las Vegas is another early-adapting city with plans to have autonomous transportation up and running throughout the entire city. However, the city’s first attempt at automated transportation ended badly when their automated shuttle bus collided with a semi-truck less than 2 hours after its debut. The cause of the accident was a delivery truck that backed into the bus. The shuttle was equipped with LiDAR sensors to map the roads. It was also fitted with cameras to identify obstacles on its path, and GPS locators for operators to locate the shuttle’s location. Despite the advanced systems, the city learned the hard way it cannot control what others do on the roads.

The truck hit the autonomous bus that didn’t have the ability to reverse. (Source: MBTMag)

China’s Zhuzhou City

Many good things are happening in China in terms of autonomous transportation. Recently in Zhuzhou, an autonomous, caterpillar-like bus was spotted. The Autonomous Rail Rapid Transit (ART), was developed by CCRC, a Beijing-based company that deals with the supply of rail transit equipment. It moves along Zhuzhou roads via sensors and can travel up to 70km per hour on its electric batteries and is expected to cut carbon emissions and ease traffic congestion.

The ART looks like a cross between a bus and a train and glides through the city using sensors. (Source: Curbed)

London

In September, the UK’s first driverless bus was tested in London’s Olympic Park. Interestingly, residents, visitors and tourists were invited to take part in the test runs throughout the month of September, free of charge. Like other autonomous buses, this electric bus navigates the roads via sensors, cameras and GPS maps. So far, the tests have been successful and the city hopes to implement the buses throughout the city in the near future. Take a look at some of the initial reactions.

Going into 2018, companies such as Uber, General Motors and BMW are expected to continue investing in autonomous vehicles and ride-sharing services. As more and more cities fine-tune their regulations and guidelines surrounding such modes of transportation, the world should see driverless transportation options pop up in more places, with fewer errors, providing more sustainable transportation systems.

Cover photo courtesy of Business Insider. 

Stephen Zoepf is the executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University.

To kick off the forum, Stephen Zoepf, executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University gave a presentation called “Electric Vehicles: Adapting to a Changing Marketplace” to share his insights on what future markets will look like and implications for automakers, suppliers as well as consumers.  

Here are the key takeaways.

The Future is Going to Look Very Different

According to a report by RethinkX, an independent research group, 6 trillion U.S. passenger miles will be driven in 2030, up 50 percent from 2021. Of those miles, 95 percent will be driven in self-driving, electric and shared vehicles and only 5 percent of those miles will be driven by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

The report goes on to say that autonomous EVs (A-EV) will make up 60 percent of the U.S vehicle stock, and those vehicles will be part of a shared-mobility service. As more people start to share cars, the overall number of vehicles on U.S. roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

SEE ALSO: Going Autonomous: The Transformation of the Transportation Industry

The change is already happening. In 2016, shared-mobility companies such as Uber and Lyft drove 500,000 passengers per day in New York City, which is triple the number of passengers from 2015. Today, more and more automakers like Tesla and GM are also entering the shared-mobility market.

EVs are already becoming prominent in major cities around the world. (Source: Time)

The findings illustrate a future where people drive more miles with fewer cars, which are fueled by electricity, and shared instead of owned. It’s a radical visualization of the future, but one that is driven by economic forces.

By 2021, shared vehicles will be 4 to 10 times cheaper per mile than private vehicles, and American households will save an average of USD 5600 every year by switching to shared EVs from cars fueled by gas, according to RethinkX.

Zoepf shared another report by ARK investment Management which echoes the finding above- in the next ten years, people will drive three times more kilometers using half the number of cars and the number of EVs on the road will increase 10 fold.

What It Means for Car Manufacturers and Suppliers

A shrinking vehicle fleet consisting of mostly EVs can only mean one thing: a major disruption to the current automotive market.  

Right now, the average lifecycle of a car in the U.S. is 11 years. However, the majority of a car’s total mileage is driven in its early years. It’s the same for shared vehicles, but they are driven about 80,000- 90,000 km per year, 10 times the distance of privately-owned cars. What this shows is a compression of the vehicle lifespan in its first 3 to 4 years.

These statistics pose critical concerns for automakers.

Will overall vehicle sales decrease in the coming future? According to Zoepf, that’s the wrong question to ask. Instead, automakers should be asking “will I make money?” Automakers have a couple of choices. They can either adapt early on and manufacture EVs and/or A-EVs at a competitive price, or become a shared-mobility provider. Early movers such as Tesla, GM and Volvo are already shifting their business strategies to fit these models.

GM recently launched Maven, a car-sharing service. (Source: The Verge)

Another question to ask is how these trends will affect vehicle design. With shortened vehicle life-cycles, manufacturers can either design cars to last only 3 to 4 years for quick replacements, or opt for the aviation model where the vehicle will be built to last, but the interior parts, such as seats, will be replaced frequently. Whatever route manufactures choose to take, gaining a competitive edge in vehicle and service quality early on will be key.

What Will This Mean for Vehicle Material Suppliers?

If building cars to last is no longer a primary priority, will car makers downgrade their materials? The short answer is not a chance.

Through a customer survey study Zoepf conducted of 60,000 Zipcar customers, he showed that the number one factor when choosing a car is safety. However, there is no one, ideal model or type of car that is preferred in a shared mobility framework. The purpose of the trip determines the type of vehicle, and the success of a shared mobility service provider will depend on the variety of cars it can provide – all with competitive safety ratings.

POSCO ICT already has ChargEV stations set up across Korea. (Source: POSCO ICT)

The supplier’s role will be to continue providing high-quality materials that can boost the safety and cost competitiveness of future vehicles. Steel suppliers have to keep developing lightweight and high-strength steels like POSCO GIGA STEEL, and research new materials that can boost the competitiveness of EVs such as POSCO’s Hyper NO for motor cores, battery materials and POSCO ICT’s EV charging service and infrastructure.

There remain numerous challenges that lie ahead for a greener and safer future with EVs and A-EVs, and it might take longer than experts predict for lawmakers, corporations and consumers to all agree on an optimal mobility model. However, change is already underway and automakers and suppliers alike need to strategize and adapt early on to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities.

For more information on how advanced automotive steel can benefit automakers looking for lightweight and sustainable steel solutions, take a look at our infographic on POSCO GIGA STEEL or read the full report here. 

Cover photo courtesy of GOV.UK.

Why Should People Care About Autonomous Transportation?

Autonomous transportation is emerging across the world, from personal vehicles to Tesla’s proposed semi trucks that drive in convoy with a lead vehicle handling autonomous follow trucks. Intel is also planning to test a fleet of one hundred autonomous cars and Hyundai’s planning to showcase its self-driving technology at the biggest winter sports event of 2018.

While many have heard of self-driving cars and other road-based vehicles, it may come as a surprise to learn just how far technology has advanced in autonomous transportation. The Swiss bank UBS, suggests that autonomous airplanes could be in place by 2025, a feat that would save airlines $35 billion a year. Clearly, the benefits are drastic and it is becoming essential for companies to invest in making autonomous travel work.

Even further into the future, companies like Next Future Transportation are envisioning pod travel, through which individual vehicles will autonomously transport people from point A to point B.

Next Future Transportation’s autonomous pod (Source: Next Future Transportation)

No matter the type, the economic impact of autonomous transportation technology is unavoidable. Boston Consulting Group expects that the driverless car market will be worth $42 billion by 2025 and $77 billion by 2035, and IHS suggests driverless car ubiquity will hit around 2050.

In terms of what these automated vehicles offer to the public, the Eno Centre for Transportation reports that if 90 percent of American roads were autonomous, accidents would drop from 6 million a year to 1.3 million; deaths would fall from 33,000 to 11,300. Add in better traffic conditions, higher fuel efficiency and extra time gained from not driving, and it’s easy to see why companies are taking notice of this tech sector.

Who is Investing in Autonomous Transportation?
Autonomous transportation entails investment from various industries from materials to technology, and major players are making early moves. Tesla is a good example of a specialty vehicle company determined to see autonomous transportation become a worldwide reality.

Big names in traditional transportation are also jumping aboard. General Motors purchased Cruise Automation, and Ford has invested in an AI startup, Argo AI. Audi has created a subsidiary, the SDS Company, focused on self-driving technology, and BMW has formed an alliance with Intel and Mobileye.

There are also auto suppliers getting into this market, such as Magna, a supplier that is manufacturing vehicles as well as providing the parts to help more traditional companies jump into automated vehicles.

Tech giants like Microsoft are getting involved, too, collaborating with automakers to include their own technology in self-driving vehicles, as well as to research and develop automated transportation technology.

Whether companies are involved in creating the actual vehicles that will be automated, providing security and safety features, pursuing further research, or providing the materials needed to create these vehicles of the future, it is safe to say that this industry is growing rapidly.

Autonomous Transportation and the Steel Industry
A shift toward autonomous transportation is good news for the steel industry. At first glance, it seems steel consumption will decrease as fewer car accidents will lead to less demand for repair parts and more room to use other materials for aesthetic purposes. However, demand for high-strength, premium steels that are highly sought after in traditional cars will continue to increase.

Materials like POSCO GIGA STEEL provide greater strength and safety for automated vehicles, an important consideration when one considers a road full of cars driving themselves. While people may no longer be behind the wheel, they will want to know that their cars, and the cars around them, are made to the highest safety standards. Safety regulations for traditional cars are only getting tougher, and that won’t change with autonomous vehicles.

POSCO’s PBC-EV made with POSCO GIGA STEEL

High-strength steel allows car makers to lightweight their vehicles without compromising safety. POSCO GIGA STEEL’s lightweight properties make it a sustainable solution for automated vehicles that aim to leave a minimal carbon footprint and maximize fuel efficiency. Even better, it is affordable; an important factor considering the overall cost of the technology and hardware that goes into automated vehicles.

The steel industry will also see a boost in the need for accompanying facilities for automated transportation, including manufacturing plants, parking structures, charging stations, smart roads and so on. While automated transportation may be high tech, there will be plenty of opportunities for those in the steel industry to provide material solutions to a rapidly growing market.

Cover photo courtesy of Auto Evolution.