Cities like Hanoi are expanding at an increasing rate. (Source: Channel News Asia)

Urbanization is also speeding up growth. By 2030, more than 10 million people will reside in Ho Chi Minh City. Not only demographically, Vietnamese urban areas are getting bigger physically, with a spatial expansion rate of 2.8 percent per year, which is faster than any other urban area in the Southeast Asian region. The growth is stimulating demand for new homes, roads, infrastructure as well as labor.

As a result, the country is already the biggest steel consumer in the region, driven by a strong construction industry and abundant FDI.

Foreign Direct Investment

During the record-breaking year of 2017, Vietnam saw registered FDI increase 44 percent YOY, and exports rise 23 percent. The majority of investment came from nearby countries such as Korea, Singapore, Japan and China, where the cost of labor is much higher than in Vietnam. Plus, of the country’s 92 million people, 60 percent are of working age, and have demonstrated high output levels. Thus, loads of manufacturing jobs are being offshored to Vietnam.

For example, Korea’s Samsung Display invested USD 2.5 billion in Vietnam last year, bringing total investments to USD 6.5 billion for the production of their display products. Polytex Far Eastern, a Taiwanese company, also invested USD 490 million for their yarn factory in Vietnam. With the continued flow of FDI, the country’s economy is reaping the benefits in terms of financial gain as well as developments in infrastructure.

Foreign Investment has created many jobs for Vietnam’s workforce, such as the workers above in a Samsung Factory. (Source: VN Media)

Two metro projects are under way in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, both funded by foreign companies. Ho Chi Minh City’s Ben Thanh-Suoi Tien line will run through the city at a length of 19.7km, and is planned for completion in 2020. Most of the funding comes from Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica), Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation and Shimizu-Maeda.

In Hanoi, the 13km Cat Linh-Ha Dong line is mainly supported by China Railways Sixth Group along with a consortium of other Chinese companies, and is scheduled to open for operation in 2018. Such major infrastructural upgrades will further boost the cities’ efficiency and create a better living and business environment.

A Strong Construction Industry

With FDI stimulating the economy and creating jobs, the Vietnamese are enjoying higher living standards and searching for homes in or near major cities. The growth of the middle class and urbanization have led to a booming construction industry.

According to POSCO Research Institute, Vietnam’s construction industry made up 33.3 percent of total GDP, with an 8 percent growth in 2017 alone. Moreover, the industry is projected to grow at an annual rate of 7 percent for the next 10 years. As a result, Vietnam’s construction industry is driving the nation’s steel demand. From 2011 to 2016, Vietnam’s steel demand grew by an average annual rate of 18.1 percent, the highest of Southeast Asian countries with the Philippines in second place at 13.6 percent and Thailand following behind at 5.7 percent.

Vietnam has seen the most rapid growth in steel demand in the region. (Source: SEAISI 2017)

With more and more homes and public infrastructure being built, Vietnam’s construction spending has grown at a CAGR of 8.5 percent and construction steel accounts for more than 93 percent of steel demand in Vietnam. Of those figures, structural steel demand is expected to make up 80 percent of the country’s entire steel demand, reaching 24 million tons by 2020. In comparison, the construction industry is accountable for 65.3 percent of total steel demand in Indonesia and 59.7 percent in Thailand, two of the biggest economies in the region.

Vietnam has one of the fastest-growing construction industries in the world. (Source: SEAISI 2017)

Currently, Vietnam’s domestic steel production capacity only meets 40 percent of its demand, meaning companies must secure stable, high-quality supplies of steel to match its growing demand.

SEE ALSO: Top 5 Steel Consuming Regions in 2018 and Beyond

POSCO’s Solution Marketing

For steelmakers like POSCO, Vietnam holds numerous possibilities for new partnerships and cooperation with construction companies. POSCO has been working closely with its partners in Vietnam for years, supplying premium products as well as supporting partners with technical and marketing solutions. POSCO also chose to open its first overseas structural steel solution center in Vietnam early this year at  POSCO SS VINA.

SEE ALSO: POSCO Opens its First Overseas Structural Steel Solutions Center in Vietnam

POSCO CEO Ohjoon Kwon (center) during a visit to POSCO SS VINA last year. (Source: POSCO SS VINA)

The center is composed of 3 main departments: Solution Planning, Solution Development and Technical Services. Due to the influx in demand for structural steel, the solution center will develop customized marketing strategies fit for the local market, and 25 experienced construction experts will provide support for projects using POSCO’s steel.

As Vietnam eyes another year of growth and development, POSCO SS VINA also looks forward to a busy year providing material and technical solutions for domestic construction projects that will play a vital role in Vietnam’s economic and social well-being.  

Cover photo courtesy of Smithsonian.

The Demographic Cliff

Economic forecaster and author of “The Demographic Cliff,” Harry Dent, says people between the ages of 45 and 49 are typically the heads of families and spend the most money on things like housing, cars and appliances. As populations age, fewer people will make up the prime spending age group of 45 to 49, and there will be a drop in consumption. Dent calls this the “demographic cliff,” or the “consumption cliff”. The world has seen proof of this theory in places like Japan, Western Europe and the U.S., where economic downturn has come at times of a population downturn.

The Japanese stock market crashed in the early 90s, and they have yet to fully recover. (Source: Huffington Post)

Japan, for example, was one of the first nations to experience a demographic cliff in the early 90s. It was also the time when its stocks and real estate prices fell 60 percent. Those prices never rebounded. Since then, the country has spiraled into debt (the world’s highest at 246 percent of GDP) with an increasingly aging workforce and stagnant economy. From 2010 to 2015, Japan’s population decreased by almost 1 million people, and the government is working to prevent the population from falling below 100 million by 2060.

The U.S. 2008 Financial Crisis came shortly after its demographic cliff. (Source: Reuters)

Dent also argued that the American baby boomers of the early 60s peaked in 2007, at their highest spending age, and then the economy experienced a downturn, in the form of the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, the U.S. government has added USD 8.4 trillion in debt. Although the reasons for the 2008 crisis are complex, Dent does prove a point: demographics have a huge impact on economics.

Falling Steel Consumption

As it was with Japan and the U.S., consumption will decrease in industries critical to the steel market. In Japan, steel consumption decreased 81 percent from 1995. According to a report by POSCO Research Institute, construction accounts for 42 percent of total steel demand and the auto industry accounts for 18.5 percent. Decreased spending on homes and cars due to the demographic cliff will have a significant impact on the steel industry. Decreased demand in other industries such as machinery and home appliances will also affect steel demand.

The construction industry will be the hardest-hit by a demographic cliff. (Source: CNBC)

Moreover, manufacturers will be faced with the problem of a shrinking workforce. Those entering the workforce will do so with the burden of sustaining government programs with a larger portion of their paychecks, and employers will start to notice the gaps not only in age but experience and skill as well. With fewer people entering the workforce, employers will be forced to outsource jobs and governments may factor in more lenient immigration policies to fill the gaps.

How can Steelmakers Prepare for the Future?

Although there is no quick solution to the aging population and low birthrates, steelmakers can start preparing for a demographic cliff in two ways. Enter markets with growing populations and introduce smart technology to fill the human labor gap.

In developing countries in Asia and Africa, there are little signs of population and economic stagnation. As those countries invest in their infrastructure and start to consume more homes, cars and appliances, steel will be in high demand, more than those countries can produce domestically.

India’s solar energy industry will lead to an increase in demand for steel. (Source: WLE)

India is one of the countries with a growing population. The government is undergoing numerous projects to boost its economy and prepare for growth, including the project to boost its solar energy market. The Indian government has plans to invest USD 100 billion and 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity for the country by 2022. Steel is a vital part of solar panels and suppliers like POSCO are already partnering with Indian firms to provide the leading material and technology for India to meet its growing renewable energy demand. POSCO also has partnerships in the U.S., Bangladesh, Myanmar, Uzbekistan and more to help each country fill their supply gaps.

In order to fill the domestic labor shortage, POSCO is incorporating leading AI technology, IoT and big data to its smart factories.

It is true that today’s developed nations have reached, or are heading towards a demographic cliff. Japan is a classic example of how detrimental a shrinking and aging population can be for a country’s economy. Governments and industries have to start factoring in demographics to their long-term strategies and plan for a changing future.     

Cover photo courtesy of 24×7 Daily.