Stephen Zoepf is the executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University.

To kick off the forum, Stephen Zoepf, executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University gave a presentation called “Electric Vehicles: Adapting to a Changing Marketplace” to share his insights on what future markets will look like and implications for automakers, suppliers as well as consumers.  

Here are the key takeaways.

The Future is Going to Look Very Different

According to a report by RethinkX, an independent research group, 6 trillion U.S. passenger miles will be driven in 2030, up 50 percent from 2021. Of those miles, 95 percent will be driven in self-driving, electric and shared vehicles and only 5 percent of those miles will be driven by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

The report goes on to say that autonomous EVs (A-EV) will make up 60 percent of the U.S vehicle stock, and those vehicles will be part of a shared-mobility service. As more people start to share cars, the overall number of vehicles on U.S. roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

SEE ALSO: Going Autonomous: The Transformation of the Transportation Industry

The change is already happening. In 2016, shared-mobility companies such as Uber and Lyft drove 500,000 passengers per day in New York City, which is triple the number of passengers from 2015. Today, more and more automakers like Tesla and GM are also entering the shared-mobility market.

EVs are already becoming prominent in major cities around the world. (Source: Time)

The findings illustrate a future where people drive more miles with fewer cars, which are fueled by electricity, and shared instead of owned. It’s a radical visualization of the future, but one that is driven by economic forces.

By 2021, shared vehicles will be 4 to 10 times cheaper per mile than private vehicles, and American households will save an average of USD 5600 every year by switching to shared EVs from cars fueled by gas, according to RethinkX.

Zoepf shared another report by ARK investment Management which echoes the finding above- in the next ten years, people will drive three times more kilometers using half the number of cars and the number of EVs on the road will increase 10 fold.

What It Means for Car Manufacturers and Suppliers

A shrinking vehicle fleet consisting of mostly EVs can only mean one thing: a major disruption to the current automotive market.  

Right now, the average lifecycle of a car in the U.S. is 11 years. However, the majority of a car’s total mileage is driven in its early years. It’s the same for shared vehicles, but they are driven about 80,000- 90,000 km per year, 10 times the distance of privately-owned cars. What this shows is a compression of the vehicle lifespan in its first 3 to 4 years.

These statistics pose critical concerns for automakers.

Will overall vehicle sales decrease in the coming future? According to Zoepf, that’s the wrong question to ask. Instead, automakers should be asking “will I make money?” Automakers have a couple of choices. They can either adapt early on and manufacture EVs and/or A-EVs at a competitive price, or become a shared-mobility provider. Early movers such as Tesla, GM and Volvo are already shifting their business strategies to fit these models.

GM recently launched Maven, a car-sharing service. (Source: The Verge)

Another question to ask is how these trends will affect vehicle design. With shortened vehicle life-cycles, manufacturers can either design cars to last only 3 to 4 years for quick replacements, or opt for the aviation model where the vehicle will be built to last, but the interior parts, such as seats, will be replaced frequently. Whatever route manufactures choose to take, gaining a competitive edge in vehicle and service quality early on will be key.

What Will This Mean for Vehicle Material Suppliers?

If building cars to last is no longer a primary priority, will car makers downgrade their materials? The short answer is not a chance.

Through a customer survey study Zoepf conducted of 60,000 Zipcar customers, he showed that the number one factor when choosing a car is safety. However, there is no one, ideal model or type of car that is preferred in a shared mobility framework. The purpose of the trip determines the type of vehicle, and the success of a shared mobility service provider will depend on the variety of cars it can provide – all with competitive safety ratings.

POSCO ICT already has ChargEV stations set up across Korea. (Source: POSCO ICT)

The supplier’s role will be to continue providing high-quality materials that can boost the safety and cost competitiveness of future vehicles. Steel suppliers have to keep developing lightweight and high-strength steels like POSCO GIGA STEEL, and research new materials that can boost the competitiveness of EVs such as POSCO’s Hyper NO for motor cores, battery materials and POSCO ICT’s EV charging service and infrastructure.

There remain numerous challenges that lie ahead for a greener and safer future with EVs and A-EVs, and it might take longer than experts predict for lawmakers, corporations and consumers to all agree on an optimal mobility model. However, change is already underway and automakers and suppliers alike need to strategize and adapt early on to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities.

For more information on how advanced automotive steel can benefit automakers looking for lightweight and sustainable steel solutions, take a look at our infographic on POSCO GIGA STEEL or read the full report here. 

Cover photo courtesy of GOV.UK.

In order to adapt, the automotive industry is learning to make cars differently. Underpinning all of these advancements is a need for stronger, lighter, and more durable materials.

Below we take a closer look at three trends that are fundamentally changing the way consumers think about cars, and what the car industry is doing to stay ahead.

Shared Mobility

Companies like Uber and Lyft have left an indelible mark on the way people use cars. While it used to be understood that a vehicle was one’s personal property and space, those ideas are changing. Over the last five years, car sharing services have seen 30 percent annual growth, and McKinsey predicts that one out of 10 cars will be a shared vehicle by 2030.

With this much sharing, vehicles will need to be replaced more frequently as they will be used more often and experience more everyday wear and tear. As consumers move away from owning one car and begin to use services that offer on-demand vehicles for specific uses, the materials used to make these cars need to improve.

Recently, many steelmakers have been working toward advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) solutions. AHSS steel solutions are also more durable than conventional steels, making them ideal for new cars that are going to be on the road with more frequency. This advancement is necessary as consumers begin to change their driving behaviors while maintaining high standards for safety and quality in the cars they use.  

Self-Driving Cars

Self driving cars are a fairly new idea, but in a short amount of time, they have consumed the imagination of the public and R&D labs around the world. Seemingly every company in the automotive industry is working on some form of a self-driving vehicle, and even those not in the industry are getting involved (see Google’s Waymo video below).

While autonomous cars are not yet market-ready, they will be soon. However, because it causes such a dramatic shift to the way people use cars, manufacturers will need to jump many hurdles before they are fully accepted by the public at large.

As with any new technology, access will be limited and expensive. In the beginning at least, it is unlikely that self-driving cars will be affordable enough for mass distribution. In addition, they must become more accessible for consumers. Most people have never seen, much less taken a ride in, a self-driving car. It is hard for people to imagine the experience, and even more difficult for them to place their trust in a piece of software located in a multi-ton vehicle. In order to ensure the trust of consumers, the auto industry must work to manufacture cars that are safer and more secure.

Advancements made in AHSS have allowed auto manufacturers to design cars with even stronger steel. Now, with auto steel being produced that goes beyond the 1,000 MPa range, consumers can feel more at ease with the software that enables them to get the grocery store.   

Electric Vehicles

Electric cars represent the forefront of the trend toward more fuel-efficient cars. Hybrid cars that use a combination of a gasoline powered engine and a rechargeable battery captured the attention of the industry after Toyota successfully launched its Prius in 1997. As car makers race to produce an electric vehicle that is viable for mass production, seemingly every major player is working toward a true electric car solution with zero emissions.

The Chevrolet Bolt EV offers a range of 200+ miles, a key milestone for consumers. (Photo by Jeffrey Sauger for Chevrolet)

Having relied on gas powered engines for over 100 years, the change to battery powered cars is changing the fundamental nature of how a car is made. Consumers have proven unwilling to change their driving habits and expectations, so manufacturers have struggled to build electric cars that can match the performance of their gas-powered cousins.

Advancements in lightweighting are required for electric cars as they will not be equipped with gas-powered engines. Also, improvements in battery technology are also needed so that EVs can increase their driving range and allow consumers to drive distances similar to what they can today.

Innovations in steel technology have given car manufacturers ideal options for lightweighting as new advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) offer lightweight, strong automotive steel. Compared to other alternatives, these new ultra high strength steels are also more eco-friendly to produce. Advancements in lithium extraction technology have also made the process faster and more environment-friendly.

The automotive industry is going through a renaissance. New expectations from consumers coupled with stricter regulations are forcing quick changes to an industry that has moved at its own pace for 100 years. As car manufacturers work to build cars that are safer, more durable, and much lighter, POSCO’s innovations in steel technology provide material solutions that are stronger, lighter, and more durable. Together with POSCO’s work in lithium extraction technology, they have also created more eco-friendly ways to make the rechargeable batteries for electric cars.     

This month, The Steel Wire will continue to look at how POSCO is driving the future of the automotive industry with its new advanced automotive steel solutions.