▲Karen Chupka, the Executive Vice President for the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), gives a keynote speech at CES 2019 (Source:CES)

On January 10th, the world’s largest trade show, Consumer Electronics Show (CES) wrapped up its four-day events in Las Vegas. CES was attended by over 4,500 companies leading the IT, electronics and mobility industries. Altogether over 180,000 individuals from more than 150 countries were present at this global stage for innovation.

Steve Koenig, Vice President of the CTA, started off the CES 2019 Trends to Watch session by discussing key industry trends marked by the term, ‘data age’ where new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), 5G mobile communications, autonomous navigation, and 8K*, as well as Virtual Reality, will become crucial.
* 8K resolution refers to any screen with around 8000 pixels width. 8K UHD is the current highest ultra high definition television (UHDTV) resolution in digital with the 7680×4320 pixels resolution.

In recent years, so many automakers are attending CES that the convention earned the nickname, “Las Vegas Motor Show.” This year was no exception. Many leading automobile companies showcased their latest technology like autonomous mobility and intelligent connectivity.

At CES, POSTECH students’ autonomous navigating robots created a buzz. The solution was devised by Polaris3D, a company established by the graduate students of POSTECH’s Creative IT Engineering Department and led by CEO In-Bum Kwak.

┃Polaris3D’s Solution Creates 3D Maps with No Extra Infrastructure

In 2016, a group of POSTECH graduate students gathered to form Polaris3D, a venture company with one clear goal in mind: to create an affordable yet sophisticated autonomous navigating solution. Since its foundation, Polaris3D has been winning contests after contests, and since 2018, the company established an office space at Pohang Center for Creative Economy & Innovation.

At the CES conference this year, Polaris3D showcased technology that allows autonomous navigation from indoors through the simple installation of a program on the robot, just like installing an application on a computer. With this simple robot autonomous navigating solution, there is no need to build a separate infrastructure deemed crucial for autonomous navigation.

Until now, utilizing indoor autonomous-navigating robot required extra devices to be installed, to allow UWB (Ultra Wideband) wireless connection or Wi-Fi. With Polaris3D’s solution, however, no additional equipment is necessary.

Polaris3D’s program allows the robot to self-drive to create maps. Based on the map it has created, the robot estimates its own position and travels to the target point, a destination.

While the current SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) technology requires a massive amount of computation, Polaris3D utilizes localization technology which can be used for small robots and drones. It can move within a relatively confined space.

This year, Polaris3D will market its solutions to robotics companies and laboratories who need indoor autonomous navigation. Furthermore, the company plans to cooperate with various robotics companies to utilize their solutions onto logistics robots or robot forklifts applying their autonomous-navigating robot solution that doesn’t necessitate additional infrastructure.

┃Industries Vie for Next-Generation Innovations

▲CES 2019 (Source: CES)

Besides Polaris3D’s technology for autonomous mobility, several Korean companies showcased a variety of new technologies at this year’s CES. On the first day of the convention, the products that gathered most attention were Samsung and LG Electronics new TV displays, which far exceeded the limits of current TV displays.

On the first day of CES 2019, Samsung Electronics unveiled the world’s smallest 75-inch micro-LED screen. As the screen size of micro LED becomes smaller, the size and spacing of the device become smaller too, which makes creating a 75-inch display all the more challenging, but Samsung pulled it off. LG Electronics, on the other hand, revealed the world’s first 65-inch rollable OLED TV. Depending on whether you want to watch the TV or not, the TV can be rolled up and down from a cabinet with built-in speakers and all the connectivity ports.

Samsung Electronics also introduced ‘New Bixby’ a smarter artificial intelligence platform as well as a series of robots like Samsung Bot Care, Samsung Bot Air, and Samsung Bot Retail. LG Electronics debuted LG HomeBrew, a capsule-based craft beer-making machine that allows in-home production of five distinctive, richly-flavored beers. LG also showcased intelligent service robot, LG Cloi SuitBot, that supports the lower body to reduce stress when lifting and bending.

Stephen Zoepf is the executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University.

To kick off the forum, Stephen Zoepf, executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University gave a presentation called “Electric Vehicles: Adapting to a Changing Marketplace” to share his insights on what future markets will look like and implications for automakers, suppliers as well as consumers.  

Here are the key takeaways.

The Future is Going to Look Very Different

According to a report by RethinkX, an independent research group, 6 trillion U.S. passenger miles will be driven in 2030, up 50 percent from 2021. Of those miles, 95 percent will be driven in self-driving, electric and shared vehicles and only 5 percent of those miles will be driven by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

The report goes on to say that autonomous EVs (A-EV) will make up 60 percent of the U.S vehicle stock, and those vehicles will be part of a shared-mobility service. As more people start to share cars, the overall number of vehicles on U.S. roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

SEE ALSO: Going Autonomous: The Transformation of the Transportation Industry

The change is already happening. In 2016, shared-mobility companies such as Uber and Lyft drove 500,000 passengers per day in New York City, which is triple the number of passengers from 2015. Today, more and more automakers like Tesla and GM are also entering the shared-mobility market.

EVs are already becoming prominent in major cities around the world. (Source: Time)

The findings illustrate a future where people drive more miles with fewer cars, which are fueled by electricity, and shared instead of owned. It’s a radical visualization of the future, but one that is driven by economic forces.

By 2021, shared vehicles will be 4 to 10 times cheaper per mile than private vehicles, and American households will save an average of USD 5600 every year by switching to shared EVs from cars fueled by gas, according to RethinkX.

Zoepf shared another report by ARK investment Management which echoes the finding above- in the next ten years, people will drive three times more kilometers using half the number of cars and the number of EVs on the road will increase 10 fold.

What It Means for Car Manufacturers and Suppliers

A shrinking vehicle fleet consisting of mostly EVs can only mean one thing: a major disruption to the current automotive market.  

Right now, the average lifecycle of a car in the U.S. is 11 years. However, the majority of a car’s total mileage is driven in its early years. It’s the same for shared vehicles, but they are driven about 80,000- 90,000 km per year, 10 times the distance of privately-owned cars. What this shows is a compression of the vehicle lifespan in its first 3 to 4 years.

These statistics pose critical concerns for automakers.

Will overall vehicle sales decrease in the coming future? According to Zoepf, that’s the wrong question to ask. Instead, automakers should be asking “will I make money?” Automakers have a couple of choices. They can either adapt early on and manufacture EVs and/or A-EVs at a competitive price, or become a shared-mobility provider. Early movers such as Tesla, GM and Volvo are already shifting their business strategies to fit these models.

GM recently launched Maven, a car-sharing service. (Source: The Verge)

Another question to ask is how these trends will affect vehicle design. With shortened vehicle life-cycles, manufacturers can either design cars to last only 3 to 4 years for quick replacements, or opt for the aviation model where the vehicle will be built to last, but the interior parts, such as seats, will be replaced frequently. Whatever route manufactures choose to take, gaining a competitive edge in vehicle and service quality early on will be key.

What Will This Mean for Vehicle Material Suppliers?

If building cars to last is no longer a primary priority, will car makers downgrade their materials? The short answer is not a chance.

Through a customer survey study Zoepf conducted of 60,000 Zipcar customers, he showed that the number one factor when choosing a car is safety. However, there is no one, ideal model or type of car that is preferred in a shared mobility framework. The purpose of the trip determines the type of vehicle, and the success of a shared mobility service provider will depend on the variety of cars it can provide – all with competitive safety ratings.

POSCO ICT already has ChargEV stations set up across Korea. (Source: POSCO ICT)

The supplier’s role will be to continue providing high-quality materials that can boost the safety and cost competitiveness of future vehicles. Steel suppliers have to keep developing lightweight and high-strength steels like POSCO GIGA STEEL, and research new materials that can boost the competitiveness of EVs such as POSCO’s Hyper NO for motor cores, battery materials and POSCO ICT’s EV charging service and infrastructure.

There remain numerous challenges that lie ahead for a greener and safer future with EVs and A-EVs, and it might take longer than experts predict for lawmakers, corporations and consumers to all agree on an optimal mobility model. However, change is already underway and automakers and suppliers alike need to strategize and adapt early on to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities.

For more information on how advanced automotive steel can benefit automakers looking for lightweight and sustainable steel solutions, take a look at our infographic on POSCO GIGA STEEL or read the full report here. 

Cover photo courtesy of GOV.UK.

Why Should People Care About Autonomous Transportation?

Autonomous transportation is emerging across the world, from personal vehicles to Tesla’s proposed semi trucks that drive in convoy with a lead vehicle handling autonomous follow trucks. Intel is also planning to test a fleet of one hundred autonomous cars and Hyundai’s planning to showcase its self-driving technology at the biggest winter sports event of 2018.

While many have heard of self-driving cars and other road-based vehicles, it may come as a surprise to learn just how far technology has advanced in autonomous transportation. The Swiss bank UBS, suggests that autonomous airplanes could be in place by 2025, a feat that would save airlines $35 billion a year. Clearly, the benefits are drastic and it is becoming essential for companies to invest in making autonomous travel work.

Even further into the future, companies like Next Future Transportation are envisioning pod travel, through which individual vehicles will autonomously transport people from point A to point B.

Next Future Transportation’s autonomous pod (Source: Next Future Transportation)

No matter the type, the economic impact of autonomous transportation technology is unavoidable. Boston Consulting Group expects that the driverless car market will be worth $42 billion by 2025 and $77 billion by 2035, and IHS suggests driverless car ubiquity will hit around 2050.

In terms of what these automated vehicles offer to the public, the Eno Centre for Transportation reports that if 90 percent of American roads were autonomous, accidents would drop from 6 million a year to 1.3 million; deaths would fall from 33,000 to 11,300. Add in better traffic conditions, higher fuel efficiency and extra time gained from not driving, and it’s easy to see why companies are taking notice of this tech sector.

Who is Investing in Autonomous Transportation?
Autonomous transportation entails investment from various industries from materials to technology, and major players are making early moves. Tesla is a good example of a specialty vehicle company determined to see autonomous transportation become a worldwide reality.

Big names in traditional transportation are also jumping aboard. General Motors purchased Cruise Automation, and Ford has invested in an AI startup, Argo AI. Audi has created a subsidiary, the SDS Company, focused on self-driving technology, and BMW has formed an alliance with Intel and Mobileye.

There are also auto suppliers getting into this market, such as Magna, a supplier that is manufacturing vehicles as well as providing the parts to help more traditional companies jump into automated vehicles.

Tech giants like Microsoft are getting involved, too, collaborating with automakers to include their own technology in self-driving vehicles, as well as to research and develop automated transportation technology.

Whether companies are involved in creating the actual vehicles that will be automated, providing security and safety features, pursuing further research, or providing the materials needed to create these vehicles of the future, it is safe to say that this industry is growing rapidly.

Autonomous Transportation and the Steel Industry
A shift toward autonomous transportation is good news for the steel industry. At first glance, it seems steel consumption will decrease as fewer car accidents will lead to less demand for repair parts and more room to use other materials for aesthetic purposes. However, demand for high-strength, premium steels that are highly sought after in traditional cars will continue to increase.

Materials like POSCO GIGA STEEL provide greater strength and safety for automated vehicles, an important consideration when one considers a road full of cars driving themselves. While people may no longer be behind the wheel, they will want to know that their cars, and the cars around them, are made to the highest safety standards. Safety regulations for traditional cars are only getting tougher, and that won’t change with autonomous vehicles.

POSCO’s PBC-EV made with POSCO GIGA STEEL

High-strength steel allows car makers to lightweight their vehicles without compromising safety. POSCO GIGA STEEL’s lightweight properties make it a sustainable solution for automated vehicles that aim to leave a minimal carbon footprint and maximize fuel efficiency. Even better, it is affordable; an important factor considering the overall cost of the technology and hardware that goes into automated vehicles.

The steel industry will also see a boost in the need for accompanying facilities for automated transportation, including manufacturing plants, parking structures, charging stations, smart roads and so on. While automated transportation may be high tech, there will be plenty of opportunities for those in the steel industry to provide material solutions to a rapidly growing market.

Cover photo courtesy of Auto Evolution.