As a result, new innovations in battery technology are beginning to open up new possibilities for not just the automotive industry, but for consumer electronics, wearables, drones and much more. Such industries are positioned for growth in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and supplying enough lithium to meet the growing demand through sustainable practices is posing a challenge.  

SEE ALSO: The Fuel of Tomorrow: Mining Lithium for Tomorrow’s Cars

New Developments in Lithium Batteries

Today, almost every automaker is invested in EVs, and it will be batteries and software, not brakes and engines, that will play a decisive role in the success of future fleets. The biggest challenge for battery manufacturers is to make a high-capacity battery that can charge in a short period of time, but still be lightweight and compact at the same time.

Solid-state lithium-ion batteries are lighter, more compact and safer than liquid-state batteries. (Source: UPS Battery Center)

Solid-state lithium-ion batteries are a feasible solution. These super-capacity batteries replace traditional semi-liquid electrolytes with solid electrolytes that allow for faster charging times (about 7 minutes) and are not susceptible to explosion on impact as liquid-state electrolytes are. Solid-state batteries can also operate in dynamic temperatures between -30 degrees Celsius and 100 degrees Celsius. Plus, they are far lighter and take up less space in an EV. Toyota has announced they will use solid-state lithium-ion batteries in their EVs starting from 2020.

Professor Yang’s flexible lithium-ion batteries are composed of stiff and flexible parts to resemble the human spine. (Source: eeNewsAnalog)

Besides cars, lithium-ion batteries are great for portable electronic devices, and a new invention looks to widen the applicability of the batteries. Assistant Professor Yuan Yang of Material Science and Engineering at Columbia University recently came up with a flexible type of lithium-ion battery that resembles the human spine. He first got the idea for the design while doing sit-ups at the gym when he noticed how his flexible spine allowed his body to move in various ways. Yang applied the idea to lithium-ion batteries by rearranging the traditional battery in a vertical structure made of stiff and flexible parts, just like the human spine. The end result was a flexible battery with more than 85 percent of the energy density found in a standard battery. The flexible and energy-dense batteries are expected to open up new possibilities for consumer technology designs and further accelerate the growing wearables market.

SolidEnergy Systems lithium-metal batteries are energy-dense and one of the smallest batteries available. (Source: Digital Trends)

There’s another up-and-coming invention that makes use of solid-state lithium batteries. SolidEnergy Systems recently received USD 34 million in funding to commercialize their lithium-metal batteries, bringing total funding to USD 50 million. The batteries have twice as much energy density as lithium-ion batteries, making them perfect for devices that have battery size limitations. By replacing graphite with lithium metal foil for the negative electrodes, the company was able to pack more energy into a smaller space. The resulting energy density is 450 watt hours per kilogram and 1200 watt hours per liter. For now, it is being sold to drone companies and the makers are working on lithium-metal batteries for wearables and EVs.

Sustainable Lithium Extraction

In the midst of development and advances in lithium batteries, the question to ask is where is all the lithium coming from, and is there enough to feed growing demand? The answer is yes, there is more than enough lithium in different parts of the world, but the problem is that there are not enough mines to extract all the lithium in demand.

Lithium is a growing source for jobs in South America due to the high demand. (Source: Twitter/@BrianDColwell)

More than half of the world’s lithium reserves are in South America, more specifically in Chile and Argentina, but Australia is the biggest producer. Even with new mines opening up at a frequent pace, lithium extraction isn’t easy. Political, social and environmental hurdles have led to unstable output. Coupled with the exponential growth of the EV market, the price of lithium carbonate has more than doubled from 2011 to 2016.

Another concern is the environmental impact of lithium extraction and production. Critics have pointed out that raw materials, such as lithium, used to produce eco-friendly batteries have a large carbon footprint on their own.

POSCO CEO Ohjoon Kwon holding lithium during his visit to PosLX, POSCO’s battery production factory in Korea.

That’s why earlier this year, steelmaker POSCO opened up PosLX, Korea’s first lithium plant, as part of the move to expand its non-steel businesses and make headways into the batteries market. The new plant has an annual production capacity of 2,500 tons and will use POSCO’s innovative technology, developed in-house. POSCO’s eco-friendly extraction technology entails extracting lithium from water, and takes anywhere between 8 hours up to a month to complete. Traditional evaporation methods take 12 to 18 months to produce the same amount. Moreover, POSCO’s technology can obtain a purity rate of 99.9 percent, as well as a recovery rate of over 80 percent.

In addition, POSCO has developed a way to extract lithium phosphate, a raw material of lithium carbonate, from used rechargeable batteries. The lithium carbonate produced from recycled secondary batteries are equal in purity, charge, discharge efficiency and capacity as existing lithium carbonate, but at a lower cost to the environment.  

SEE ALSO: POSCO’s Innovation Shapes the Ever-Growing Lithium Market

Going forward, POSCO plans to increase its lithium production capacity to 40,000 tons per year to supply the increasing demand from new-growth industries and ensure a sustainable future of renewable energy.

Cover photo courtesy of Cleantechnica.

Besides utility managed solar farms, solar developers are targeting other open spaces, such as auto parking lots, for large-scale energy savings (Source: Phys.org)

The surge in these installations is prompting a parallel upswing in solar infrastructure, which is seeing its own technology advances as a result of high demand and the need for greater cost efficiencies. While sturdy racking is important to protect against the ravages of nature, one of the main requirements for large solar farms — and any larger installation — is solar tracking equipment.

Solar tracking offers grid operators the opportunity to squeeze efficiency from sunlight at all hours of the day. While fixed-panel arrays are highly efficient for general-purpose energy harvesting, single-axis solar tracking can increase a solar farm’s annual output by roughly 30 percent. Dual axis trackers can add 10-20 percent beyond that. For example, air mass tables for solar panels show that a panel mounted on a tracker can harness as much as 60% of solar intensity in the late afternoon at an angle of 15 degrees, 50% at 10 degrees, and capture 25% at a mere five degrees. In large installations these gains can mean the ability to respond with enough power to satisfy peak demand.

Solar tracking systems explained

A solar tracking system is used for a variety of applications. Depending on the applications, the mounting systems will differ somewhat. Typically solar trackers hold single or multiple standard flat panels, arranged in rows and funneling power to an energy storage site or directly to a substation.

Parabolic mirrors can focus sunlight onto solar collectors. (Source: EU Solaris)

However, solar trackers are critical for large-scale solar installations using concentrated solar power (CSP). These trackers hold mounted mirrors that reflect sunlight to a central collector tower containing hot liquid or gas. They are also a key element in concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) installations that use parabolic mirrors or lenses to focus sunlight (and even ambient light from the sky) into solar collectors that are part of each unit. These panels and mirrors require precise angles to enable optimized concentration of the light onto a fixed-location tower, into Fresnel lenses, or into a solar thermal collector. The tracking system may be centralized, where a single motor moves many rows of panels at once, or a distributed system, where an individual motor moves one row or table of panels.

Horizontal single axis trackers (pictured above) are better suited for lower latitudes. (Source: Energia Solar)

Solar tracking devices can be classified by the number of axes around which they rotate and by their orientation. Horizontal single axis trackers (HSATs) are horizontal to the ground and mounted on rotating tubes supported by pylons or frames. Horizontal single axis trackers with tilted modules (HTSATs) are similar but installed at an angle, for higher latitudes, but rotate the same way. Vertical single axis tracker (VSAT) panels, also for higher latitudes, rotate around a vertical axis, but the layout must be designed to prevent the rows of panels from casting shade on each other. A hybrid horizontal/vertical tracking system is referred to as a tilted single axis tracker (TSAT).

A tilted single axis tracker is a hybrid of horizontal and vertical tracking systems. (Source: The University of Queensland)

In addition to the panels or mirrors, tracker hardware may include steel posts or rails, cables, junction boxes, slew drives to rotate the panels, and hydraulic dampers to provide flexible resistance against the wind. The structures must be robust, well-anchored, easily transported and installed, and must be able to withstand the elements, including hot or cold locations, strong storms, heavy rain or snowfall, and even seismic activity.

Perceptions of solar tracking

For a time, solar tracking for large-scale installations had a reputation as a more expensive and maintenance-intensive technology despite the higher energy capture rates. Some of these reliability perceptions still linger. In actuality, according to Greentech Media, solar tracking systems boast a 99.9 percent uptime rate and advances continue in mechanical functionality and software-based optimization. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that of all utility solar projects constructed in the US in 2016, 79% used solar tracking rather than a fixed panel.

Advances in solar tracking

Despite being perceived as a less exciting infrastructural component of the solar industry, solar tracking has seen a number of technological and mechanical breakthroughs that promise increased growth due to lower costs and increased weather resistance.

One of the challenges is the economics of land use and site preparation. Until recently, utilities and third-party solar farm developers had to plan carefully to ensure that the needed amount of power could be generated from a particular site size given solar tracker configurations (e.g. HSAT vs VSAT). Additionally, they had to take into consideration the site contours and how much grading and preparation would be required to adapt the site to optimized solar tracker deployment. As a result, there has been stiff competition for flat sites.

Utilizing slopes and rolling terrain

In California, a company called Nevados Engineering is on the verge of launching single axis trackers designed to work on south-facing and sun-facing slopes and varied terrain, which offer better solar exposure. The company’s All Terrain Tracker (ATT) technology uses unique bearings that allow articulation with the driveline so it can fit the terrain using the same kind of posts as on flat land. Every post in the row is used to withstand the slope load, which is the toppling force exerted by the structure being pulled down the hill by gravity. The tracking units can handle slopes of over 20 degrees and can also handle side-to-side, and vertical, post misalignment of up to two feet. The advance vastly reduces the need for grading and landscaping, enabling solar developers to purchase significantly cheaper sloped or contoured terrain to maximize solar energy capture.  The company’s software enables developers to predict solar production for a site to calculate the economics.

Nevados Engineering’s All Terrain Tracker technology and help install solar trackers in all kinds of terrains. (Source: LA Cleantech Incubator)

“We need to look beyond what we expect solar trackers to do,” said Yezin Taha, CEO of Nevados Engineering. “Installing trackers on a slope can capture 7% more solar energy than trackers on flat ground, and 32% more energy than fixed tilt systems.”

Leveraging non-standard sites

Another recent development, floating ground mounts, has also made more large-scale solar sites available. While most solar trackers are mounted on posts that are driven directly into the ground or less frequently, on posts that use concrete foundations or ballast, certain kinds of terrain won’t support driving posts or invasive concrete structures. These sites, such as capped landfills, can be highly suitable for solar installations due to their height, restricted access, and unsuitability for other uses. The development of floating ground mounts, where the tracker is placed on a gravel pan that can be filled with a variety of materials, has made possible the use of these kinds of sites where posts can’t be driven.

Resisting the elements

Advances in resistive materials also show promise for the solar tracking industry. Posts and other tracking components are typically made of galvanized steel, which means they are coated with a high zinc content layer. Galvanization has been the most weatherproof and anti-corrosive solution to-date, but it still allows rust to form over time. Moisture can be an electrolyte that enables galvanic corrosion to occur, so that as humidity increases, the rate of corrosion increases. Also, atmospheric contaminants can catalyze the chemical reaction. Chlorides in marine environments, as well as and sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxides in industrial locations, may present a higher risk of corrosion.

Recently steel companies such as POSCO have begun to add magnesium to the coatings for further protection, a process that had been prohibitively complex until now.  POSCO’s PosMAC is a combination of zinc, aluminum and magnesium that “heals” any exposed parts of the steel by forming a layer of simonkolleite, a stable compound, over the vulnerable area. The development promises greater ruggedness and durability for tracking components.

Streamlining operations and maintenance

Finally, the advent of sensors, drone-based inspections, and the Internet of Things (IoT) will have a growing impact on solar farm operational costs by enabling remote monitoring, hardware predictability, just-in-time replacement and streamlined functioning. An operator in Germany could easily determine when to clean the solar panels in a Dubai installation after a dust storm or know when a tracking mechanism becomes jammed.

Solar tracking mechanisms can be monitored easily with the help of artificial intelligence. (Source: Micro Power Grids)

These advances, coupled with the cost efficiencies of solar and the increasing availability of grid-level energy storage solutions, will continue to boost the utility-scale solar energy market and take market share from fossil fuel power plants. The expansion of solar power offers a significant opportunity for multiple industries, from materials providers to solar panel manufacturers, tracking system component manufacturers, sensor distributors, battery makers, software developers and even drone suppliers. By leveraging the confluence of these technologies each industry can ensure that they participate in the solar market’s return on investment.

Tom Breunig is the publisher of Cleantech Concepts, an online magazine and market research firm tracking cleantech R&D and innovative business models.

Just to name a few, Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia repealed a law that exonerates rapists and allows them to avoid punishment if they marry their rape victims. In Saudi Arabia, women finally gained the right to hold driver’s licenses. In the U.S. and around the world, more than 5 million people took part in the Women’s March in January 2017, to advocate fairness and equality. Then, Iceland set an example for all when it became the first country in history to make it illegal for companies with 25 or more employees to pay men more than women for the same job.

This year, steelmaker POSCO added a big win for women’s empowerment.

POSCO Follows the (Women’s) Lead

POSCO recently welcomed their first female executive, Lee Yu-Kyung, as POSCO’s Chief of Plant, Equipment and Materials Procurement. In a male-dominated industry, Lee’s achievement is a rare sighting, but after taking a deeper look at Lee’s work history and overall attitude, it’s no surprise Lee is a woman who deserves to be at the top.

Lee Yu-Kyung, POSCO’s first female executive employee.

For Lee, POSCO is her second job. She was at her first job in 1990 at an IT company when she saw, spread across the front page of the daily paper, POSCO’s ad calling for female employees.

“When I saw the question on the ad that read, ‘WIll you join POSCO to work towards a promising future today?’ I just thought this is it. It sounds tacky today, but at the time, it was the opportunity I had been waiting for.”

And so began Lee’s 27 years (and still counting!) with POSCO. The first task she encountered was handling exports of cold-rolled steel to Southeast Asia, and she was off on her first business trip to Singapore just months into her job.

“It was a rare opportunity for a fresh rookie 1st year recruit to be able to go overseas. Looking back, I think it was opportunities like these, and the expectations that came with them that built me up professionally.”

Keeping Work Interesting

After her experience in the Export Department, she moved from department to department about once every 3 years, including Machinery Purchasing, Raw Materials Purchasing, Marketing at POSCO M-Tech and even completed a year-long MBA program at Ewha Womans University.

“POSCO has a work-rotation program for its employees, which just goes to show how invested the company is in the growth of individual employees. It’s a lot more cost-effective for POSCO to hire employees to specialize in one position, but instead, we rotate every 3 to 4 years to learn new tasks, gain insight and experience new working environments. This is probably the biggest reason I believe I made the right choice in working at POSCO.”

Vice President Lee was the brains behind POSCO’s Global Information Hub. (Source: 727406 Vimeo)

Lee’s continued learning within the company lead to some impressive results. She set up what is now known as the Global Information Hub (GIH), a process for gathering market information by utilizing the network of global trading companies. Lee was also the first person to apply the concept of total cost of ownership (TCO) to machinery purchasing so the company could make well-informed and comprehensive decisions.

Lee explained, “Whereas before, the price of machinery determined purchase decisions, TCO provides a more accurate cost based on the machinery’s performance and efficiency over its lifecycle.” As such, POSCO is still reaping the benefits of Lee’s hard work.

Lee’s professional achievements are impressive, but it’s not the only thing young professionals can learn from her.

A True Multi-tasker

“To be honest, I don’t recall too many moments where I encountered hardship at work. I just try to do all that I can in the given situation, and I know that’s enough. However, one of my greatest challenges came when I found out I was pregnant with my fourth child. Going through 3 pregnancies was tough enough, and I didn’t know if I could come back from a fourth. The thing I worried about most was what my coworkers would think if I took another maternity leave.”

“I’ll never forget what my boss at the time told me. He said, ‘I’m grateful for everything you’ve done for the company so far, and I know you will do well going forward. I know it’s hard right now, but this time is going to pass.’ Thanks to my boss I found the courage to come back after an 8-month maternity leave and get to where I am today.”

Advice for All Working Women

Just as her chief played a critical role in her career, Lee hopes to coach and foster other women employees at POSCO.

“I’m not going to say that being a working mom is easy. My third youngest once held onto a lamp post on the side of the street and cried all morning on our way to kindergarten. It breaks your heart, but those moments do pass, and then you’ll be glad you held on and fought through.”

Lee Yu-Kyung had plenty of advice for other working professional women.

Besides working through hard times, Lee shared other advice for working professionals.

“You gotta take care of yourself – during weekends, you have to get meaningful rest. You have to fit in time with your friends and enjoy the moments along the way.” Plus, for the past 10 years, Lee has fit in an hour of exercise every morning before work and can’t remember the last time she took a sick day. “Your body is just like the machinery in our factories. You have to take care of it, make sure nothing’s broken and maintain it over a long time.”

“Professionally, it’s important to try and see the bigger picture and work to your competitive advantage. Always watch what the seniors are doing, and be open and willing to learn.”

Going Forward as POSCO’s First Female Executive

When asked what her future plans were in her new role, she replied, “I believe purchasing goes beyond obtaining certain products. It’s about developing the supplier’s technology, business strategy and vision for mutual growth. That’s why we’ve always put an emphasis on fairness, transparency and cost-saving, but in the future, I would like to also work towards finding new technologies with suppliers to lead the market and gain further competitiveness. In order to achieve this, we plan to cut costs internally and continue to cooperate and co-create with our suppliers.”

During her 27 years at POSCO, Lee was able to turn every challenge into an opportunity to become the professional she is today as well as a role model for other women working in male-dominated industries. There is no doubt she will continue to progress and rise to meet new challenges at POSCO.

Cover photo courtesy of The Daily Beast

More drivers are making the switch from gas to electricity to fuel their cars. (Source: The Korea Bizwire)

SEE ALSO: Ask an Expert: Electric Vehicles and the Future of the Automotive Market

Why don’t more people drive EVs?

Electric vehicles (EVs) have a variety of benefits for drivers, the most obvious being cheaper electricity prices compared to gas. Not only that, EVs only have about a third of the parts of ICE vehicles, which results in maintenance-cost reductions by about 60 percent. There are also government subsidies that support EV manufacturers and consumers in numerous countries, and environmental regulations only look to strengthen. Despite all this, drivers have been slow to make the switch to EVs, and there are 3 critical reasons why.

1. Range

Today, EVs can travel about 200 to 400 miles on a single charge, and while this may be sufficient for most urban drivers, it’s still not enough coverage to relieve drivers of range anxiety. Low-capacity batteries are not the only problem – the weight of the car and the efficiency of the motor and converter also affect range. Put simply, even if a battery could hold more energy, it won’t result in increased range if the car is too heavy or the motor is inefficient and uses up too much energy. Automakers have to come up with comprehensive solutions to improve the battery capacity and motor efficiency as well as lightweight their vehicles.

Drivers are often wary of their EVs running out of juice where there are no charging stations. (Source: Sandman YouTube Channel)

2. Charging Time

EVs currently take up to several hours to fully charge, depending on the battery. Although there have been advancements in charging systems that allow for shorter charging times, the average charging duration cannot compete with the 3 to 5 minutes people spend at gas stations.

3. Charging Stations

Despite the technological leaps made in the development of EVs, charging infrastructure has not maintained the same pace. Gas stations outnumber charging stations in every country, and it will take time to figure out a model to commercialize charging stations and make the business more profitable.

Charging stations have not yet been commercialized as gas stations have. (Source: Coinfeeds)

Why EVs are still driving toward a bright future

Although there are still challenges to overcome, one of the greatest drivers of widespread EV adoption is national policy. A growing number of countries have declared they will limit or even ban ICE cars altogether by 2020. Policies are already in place to support a more environmentally sustainable auto industry, and companies are working hard to navigate and capitalize on the changing market environment.

This will bring about a wealth of new opportunities for related industries. That’s why automotive, materials, electronics and chemical companies around the world are investing heavily in technology to preempt this market, and first movers will gain a tremendous advantage.

POSCO is one of the companies looking to lead the global EV materials market and has been investing in and developing innovative solutions for EV manufacturers. POSCO has designed an ultra-lightweight yet strong chassis and developed the necessary parts to bring it to life. POSCO is also currently working with auto manufacturers, giving them access to POSCO’s EV chassis design expertise as well as its newly-developed materials.

POSCO has designed an ideal chassis for electric vehicles. (Source: News Tomato)

In addition, POSCO works closely with each of its affiliates including POSCO Daewoo, ICT, ESM and ComTech that are highly specialized in their respective fields. In cooperation with its affiliates, customers and academia, POSCO is in the process of developing innovative technologies for batteries, electric motors and charging infrastructure. As such, the EV sector has become a core business area for POSCO.  

Everything from the EV chassis and battery to the motor and charging infrastructure is codependent. Therefore, in order to develop an advanced EV that meets the needs of consumers, an integrated approach is vital. POSCO is in prime position to work with all of its affiliates under One POSCO and gear toward a future of cars running on electric motors.

Cover photo courtesy of The Wellingtonian.

Huayou Cobalt is one of the world’s biggest mining companies that can produce about 50 percent of the cobalt required for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries worldwide. They also have their own nickel mine in addition to a cobalt mine.

The joint venture for precursor production is made up of 60 percent of investments by Huayou Cobalt that can supply cobalt, nickel and manganese, and 40 percent by POSCO. 60 percent of investments for the joint venture for cathode material production comes from POSCO who owns the high-grade cathode material production technology and 40 percent of investments come from Huayou Cobalt. The joint ventures will be operating production lines for 4,600 tons of precursors and cathode materials a year starting from the second half of 2020.

POSCO and Huayou Cobalt sign agreements for joint ventures in cathode material supply and production.

Through these joint ventures, POSCO can now secure its market position in China by directly manufacturing and selling cathode materials locally. In addition, it can gain a competitive edge by securing a stable supply of not only precursors but also materials such as cobalt, nickel and manganese for POSCO ESM’s cathode materials plant in Gumi. Huayou Cobalt can expand its business in manufacturing and sales of cathode materials in addition to that of raw materials.

As the eco-friendly policies of the world continue to be tightened, the demand for electric vehicles, industrial energy storage systems (ESS) and IT bulk batteries has increased rapidly. Thus, the market for cathode materials, which are essential materials for lithium-ion batteries, is also expected to quadruple from 210,000 tons in 2016 to 860,000 tons in 2020.

Accordingly, the price of cobalt, one of the most expensive materials, tripled in the last two years, followed by the price of nickel and manganese. This explains why a stable supply of materials is essential for profitability.

POSCO’s lithium-ion battery material business is headed for future growth, and is expected to gain increased momentum with the joint ventures for precursors and cathode materials. POSCO completed its carbon lithium plant PosLX at Gwangyang Steelworks last year after 7 years of developing its own proprietary technology of directly extracting lithium in 2010. It is currently under commercial production.

The future may look uncertain for commercial aviation, but the increasing demand for passenger flights, the need for new aircraft as well as new innovations are expected to stimulate the industry in 2018 and beyond.

SEE ALSO: Game Changers in Aviation that Will Empower the Way We Fly

Smaller planes, more frequent miles

City pairs, or pairs of departure and arrival airports, are growing around the globe. According to Aviation Week Network’s 2018 Fleet & MRO Forecasts, South Asia’s routes will increase from 650 in 2006 to 1200 by 2026. African routes will expand from 1400 to 2600 in the same time frame and Russia and the CIS region will see an additional 1000 routes by 2026.

For such city pairs, 100 to 150-seat aircrafts are ideal, and airlines will opt to add more of the crafts to their fleet over larger crafts that are hard to fill.

Smaller, 100 to 150-seat planes will be in higher demand. (Source: Quora)

The growing global demand for passenger flights will further contribute to the need for more small-sized planes. In 2016, a total of 3.8 billion passengers flew the skies, and the number is projected to reach 4.3 billion in 2018.

Out with the old, in with the new

In the next 20 years, most of the existing fleet of aircraft will retire, and be replaced with new aircrafts. This will create an increased demand for airplane parts, new technology and labor. The overall volume of the global fleet will increase at an average yearly rate of 3.1 percent, and a major bulk of the supply is projected to come from the Asia-Pacific region.

MRO for older aircraft will open new business opportunities. (Source: Crescent Capital)

To add, the cost of maintenance, repairs and overhaul (MRO) for aircrafts older than 10 years will reach USD 1 trillion for the first time ever, creating more business opportunities for suppliers and service providers.

Military aircraft will play its part in the Aviation Industry

In the U.S., the government is planning to spend USD 400 billion on fifth generation F-35 fighter jets made by Lockheed Martin Corp, and 11 other countries are currently working out a purchase deal worth over USD 37 billion.

Fifth generation F-35 fighter jets are one of the most advanced military jets ever. (Source: Gizmodo)

Moreover, USD 67.3 billion is projected to be spent on the MRO of the world’s military aircraft, up 14.9 percent from USD 58.6 billion in 2008. With increasing tensions all over the world and subsequent rise in defense spending, demand for military aircraft will likely continue.

And then there’s flying cars

Although not traditionally counted as part of the aviation industry, flying cars are popping up in cities around the world and blurring the lines that define different transportation industries. With increasing investment, flying vehicles may become a reality in the next couple of years, and most will be flying on clean fuel. Here are some companies with plans to launch flying cars.

Volvo’s TF-X is one of several flying cars in development. (Source: The Verge)

Uber

Uber recently announced its partnership with NASA to develop an electric aircraft taxi service called UberAIR, planned to be up and running in 2020. If successful, the vehicle will be quieter than a helicopter, travel up to 150 mph and charging will only take about 4 minutes. Uber has plans to test the service shortly in L.A., after successful trials in Dallas and Dubai. If all goes well, travel time in L.A.’s rush hour can decrease by a third.

Airbus

Airbus is looking to launch their CityAirBus in the skies for taxi service in 2018. The all-electric vertical takeoff vehicles will transport people up to 80 mph over congested traffic to destinations like rooftops, train stations and airports. The vehicles can carry up to 4 passengers at a time and travel up to 80 mph. In the beginning stages of its launch, Airbus plans to have a pilot on board the flights over fixed routes, but will work towards autonomous operations.

Volvo

Geely, which is the parent company that owns Volvo, recently purchased a flying-car startup, Terrafugia. The company aims to have its flying cars in operation by 2019, with a range of 400 miles on a single charge and travel speed of up to 100 mph. Terrafugia already received the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) approval to start flying. They are also working on their next model, the TF-X, which can fly up to 200 mph and will cost around EUR 180,000.

The aviation industry will see many changes in the coming years. Although steeply rising oil prices will play a major factor in the profitability of the industry, the rising demand for passenger flights, increased military spending and new innovations will lead production and create new business opportunities for 2018 and beyond.

The Demographic Cliff

Economic forecaster and author of “The Demographic Cliff,” Harry Dent, says people between the ages of 45 and 49 are typically the heads of families and spend the most money on things like housing, cars and appliances. As populations age, fewer people will make up the prime spending age group of 45 to 49, and there will be a drop in consumption. Dent calls this the “demographic cliff,” or the “consumption cliff”. The world has seen proof of this theory in places like Japan, Western Europe and the U.S., where economic downturn has come at times of a population downturn.

The Japanese stock market crashed in the early 90s, and they have yet to fully recover. (Source: Huffington Post)

Japan, for example, was one of the first nations to experience a demographic cliff in the early 90s. It was also the time when its stocks and real estate prices fell 60 percent. Those prices never rebounded. Since then, the country has spiraled into debt (the world’s highest at 246 percent of GDP) with an increasingly aging workforce and stagnant economy. From 2010 to 2015, Japan’s population decreased by almost 1 million people, and the government is working to prevent the population from falling below 100 million by 2060.

The U.S. 2008 Financial Crisis came shortly after its demographic cliff. (Source: Reuters)

Dent also argued that the American baby boomers of the early 60s peaked in 2007, at their highest spending age, and then the economy experienced a downturn, in the form of the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, the U.S. government has added USD 8.4 trillion in debt. Although the reasons for the 2008 crisis are complex, Dent does prove a point: demographics have a huge impact on economics.

Falling Steel Consumption

As it was with Japan and the U.S., consumption will decrease in industries critical to the steel market. In Japan, steel consumption decreased 81 percent from 1995. According to a report by POSCO Research Institute, construction accounts for 42 percent of total steel demand and the auto industry accounts for 18.5 percent. Decreased spending on homes and cars due to the demographic cliff will have a significant impact on the steel industry. Decreased demand in other industries such as machinery and home appliances will also affect steel demand.

The construction industry will be the hardest-hit by a demographic cliff. (Source: CNBC)

Moreover, manufacturers will be faced with the problem of a shrinking workforce. Those entering the workforce will do so with the burden of sustaining government programs with a larger portion of their paychecks, and employers will start to notice the gaps not only in age but experience and skill as well. With fewer people entering the workforce, employers will be forced to outsource jobs and governments may factor in more lenient immigration policies to fill the gaps.

How can Steelmakers Prepare for the Future?

Although there is no quick solution to the aging population and low birthrates, steelmakers can start preparing for a demographic cliff in two ways. Enter markets with growing populations and introduce smart technology to fill the human labor gap.

In developing countries in Asia and Africa, there are little signs of population and economic stagnation. As those countries invest in their infrastructure and start to consume more homes, cars and appliances, steel will be in high demand, more than those countries can produce domestically.

India’s solar energy industry will lead to an increase in demand for steel. (Source: WLE)

India is one of the countries with a growing population. The government is undergoing numerous projects to boost its economy and prepare for growth, including the project to boost its solar energy market. The Indian government has plans to invest USD 100 billion and 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity for the country by 2022. Steel is a vital part of solar panels and suppliers like POSCO are already partnering with Indian firms to provide the leading material and technology for India to meet its growing renewable energy demand. POSCO also has partnerships in the U.S., Bangladesh, Myanmar, Uzbekistan and more to help each country fill their supply gaps.

In order to fill the domestic labor shortage, POSCO is incorporating leading AI technology, IoT and big data to its smart factories.

It is true that today’s developed nations have reached, or are heading towards a demographic cliff. Japan is a classic example of how detrimental a shrinking and aging population can be for a country’s economy. Governments and industries have to start factoring in demographics to their long-term strategies and plan for a changing future.     

Cover photo courtesy of 24×7 Daily.

POSCO hosted the 2017 Global EV Materials Forum at the Songdo Global R&D Center in Incheon.

POSCO welcomed more than 380 local and overseas customers to the forum where they announced the current status of POSCO Group’s EV projects and strategies. The company also showcased its core EV technologies for high-value-added products such as motors, batteries and lightweight chassis/bodies.

During the forum, POSCO highlighted customer needs, market trends and development statuses in three areas: lightweight materials, traction motor cores and batteries. POSCO researchers also gave presentations on POSCO’s high-value-added products and solutions to share market insights and technological developments with the participants.

Participants listen to presentations at the 2017 Global EV Materials Forum.

In his keynote speech, In-hwan Oh, president of POSCO, said, “POSCO is in full preparation for the future of an electric vehicle ecosystem, to become a reliable partner to our customers.”

There were also external speakers at the forum, including Stephen Zoepf, Executive Director of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University, who spoke about “Electric Vehicles: Adapting to a Changing Marketplace.” Another external speaker was Martin Woehrle, senior director of BMW Korea, who gave a presentation on the trends in EV development.

In addition, POSCO held a separate exhibition at the venue consisting of four key product zones: motors, batteries, light-weight chassis/bodies and charging infrastructure. There was also an EV model on display in the Highlight Zone for a better understanding of the structure of EVs.

Visitors examine the electric Nissan Leaf

On display In the lightweight chassis/bodies exhibition zone was POSCO GIGA STEEL for lightweight chassis/bodies, which is lighter but much stronger than existing automotive steel sheets. Also on display was POSCO’s lithium materials for EV batteries; POSCO is the first company in Korea to commercially produce lithium for EV batteries.

In the motor zone was POSCO Daewoo’s a high-efficiency traction motor core for EVs made with POSCO’s Hyper NO, its highest-grade, non-oriented electrical steel. POSCO is already supplying it to major automakers.

The charging infrastructure zone showed POSCO ESM and POSCO Chemtech’s core materials of EV batteries, such as cathode and anode materials. In addition, POSCO ICT is the only company in Korea to provide a total-service electric vehicle charging infrastructure, including supply, installation and operation to membership management and supplementary services.

To close, POSCO pledged to become a “Total Solution Provider” for its partners in the auto industry bracing for the age of electric vehicles with its innovative technology, premium products and customized services.

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Nowhere is growth stronger than in China

Unlike in most developed countries, many of China’s younger citizens (25- to 45-year-olds) are able to afford a cruise. According to Cruise Lines International Association’s Senior Vice President of Strategic Marketing and Communications, Lorri Christou, the Asian cruise industry is seeing more travelers than ever. Executive Vice President of the China Cruise and Yacht Industry Association, Zheng Weihand, expects 2.5 million travelers by 2020, 4.5 million by 2025, and seven million by 2030.

The swimming pool on Royal Caribbean’s Ovation of the Seas cruise ship at the port of Tianjin. (Source: Today Online)

The growing demand is having a positive effect on the Chinese shipbuilding economy as well.

Vice-chairman of the Chinese organizing committee of Marintec China, Fu Chunhong, said that China State Shipbuilding Corp is among a number of Chinese shipbuilders that are proactive in building cruise liners. The Chinese government prioritizes subsidies and development support for the cruise industry, and many ports are upgrading their infrastructure to handle new tonnage and more ships.

With time, China could become the world’s largest cruise market as the middle class in China continues to grow. They are seeking luxury vacation cruises, and this is being encouraged by the Chinese government that supports lenient annual leave policies.

Major global players are also making a move

Chinese companies may be ripe for growth due to favorable government policies and financial support, but they still lack in technology in comparison to major players in the global cruise industry such as Carnival Corporation, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and Norwegian Cruise Line.

Carnival Corporation

Carnival recently marked the start of construction of seven next-generation cruise ships to be fully-powered by LNG. These ships, due between 2018 and 2022, will be the first able to use LNG or 100 percent of their power. This comes after its installation of Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems (EGCS) on 60 of their existing cruise ships, reflecting the company’s vision for more sustainable business practices.

Carnival Corporation’s deployment in China includes vessels from Princess Cruises, including the Sapphire Princess, a cruise ship built to be based in Shanghai, and the Majestic Princess which was designed as a year-round international luxury vessel specifically tailored to Chinese guests.

Royal Caribbean

Having helped fund two new Royal Caribbean vessels in 2015, KfW IPEX is funding more cruise liners, with 2.8 billion euros in shipping loans earmarked. They are also looking to meet the demand of global passengers, growing at a rate of 4.5 percent per year.   

Royal Caribbean is mobilizing its best gear in the Chinese market. Its “Quantum of the Seas,” for example, travels the region year-round, alongside “Ovation of the Seas,” vessels tailored for Chinese passengers.

A night view of the Carnival’s Regal Princess, part of the Princess Cruises. (Source: Cruise Mapper)

Norwegian Cruise Line

Norwegian Cruise Line’s Norwegian Bliss is another example of a purpose-built ship that is customized for the promising Chinese market. The first domestically manufactured cruise liner, however, will be constructed at Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co Ltd., and is scheduled to be delivered in 2023. China will then see one vessel per year between 2024 and 2028.

Implications for the Global Steel Industry

With the growth of the Chinese market increasing demand for new ships and the continued, worldwide demand for environmental sustainability, shipbuilders are turning to liquified natural gas (LNG) for greener shipping. This will mean that there will be a sustained growth in demand for LNG-related steel.

For example, POSCO supplies all the stainless steel for Korea Gas Corporation’s membrane-type LNG carriers, as the exclusive supplier of stainless steel for membrane material in Korean and international markets.

An LNG carrier. (Source: Shipping Tribune)

POSCO’s cryogenic high manganese steel, which has been registered as a standard technology, is being used to make a ship that can run on bunker C oil and LNG, and can carry more than 7 times the usual largest load (for an LNG-powered bulk carrier) of 7000 tons. POSCO aims to build an overseas market for high manganese steel with Korean shipbuilders.

Demand for LNG-related steel will continue to benefit from the growing global cruise market and increased cruise shipbuilding. POSCO is one steel supplier that hopes to continue to provide material solutions for the shipbuilding industry, especially for green, LNG-powered cruise ships, with its premium products.

Consider some of the bigger shifts in the US energy industry:

The Shale Revolution

The “shale revolution” has impacted the entire energy system in the US and worldwide. Although the elements of horizontal drilling and fracking had been known for decades, it was the entrepreneurial genius of men like George Mitchell of Houston who found the way to link these technologies and apply them commercially. It resulted in the US going from a natural gas importer to an exporter of pipeline gas and LNG, an exporter of oil (but not a net exporter), and the collapse of prices for gas, LNG, oil and oil products. It reverberated throughout OPEC countries and other major producers like Russia, as well as in major importing countries. It also enabled oil and gas producers to reduce their footprint overseas and focus on domestic production opportunities.

The “shale revolution” has impacted the entire energy system in the US and worldwide. (Source: Bloomberg Business)

Coal Industry

Coal, which had been king in the middle of the last century, has been declining rapidly, losing market share to often cheaper natural gas. The improbable opportunity to ship coal to Germany provided some relief. The Trump Administration may have won the election by making promises to US coal-producing states, but having an impact on this declining industry will take more than rhetoric. While much attention has been given to anti-coal regulation it has been market forces that caused electricity producers to shift from coal to natural gas.

Nuclear Energy

Nuclear energy faces the twin threats of obsolescence, as well as competitiveness with natural gas. The regulatory system also contributes to its decline. Many of the roughly 100 nuclear facilities operating in the US were built about 40 years ago, which means that they were due for major upgrades or retirement now. Only a few new plants are under construction, and they are massively over budget and have been built only in states with regulatory systems in which consumers must bear the cost of such overruns. Conventional wisdom had been that these plants would be upgraded and run for decades more. Instead several have announced shutdowns, and more are expected to follow. Nuclear had been considered a low-cost base fuel, but has trouble with competing with natural gas at current prices.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of Energy Rick Perry (Source: Fortune)

Energy policy in the Trump Administration, led by Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, is trying to protect both coal and nuclear because of their important role as baseload producers, in contrast to wind and solar that cannot provide consistent power to the system. But it seems doubtful that regulatory mechanisms will overcome market forces.

Falling Prices

The collapse of oil and natural gas prices led to the elimination of hundreds of thousands of jobs worldwide and slashing capital budgets, especially for higher-cost production such as deepwater, the Arctic, and other frontier environments. The shale play was led by small independent companies, but many of them took on too much debt, spent too much money to buy leases from mineral-rights owners, and drilled but often didn’t complete wells because of a focus on future growth. A number of them have failed financially or sold off properties. Even giants like BHP Billiton, which entered the US shale market with a USD 20 billion investment, wrote off USD 13 billion within six years. Although there continues to be substantial financing available from Wall Street, the focus has shifted from growth to cash flow. This has important implications.

But cheaper natural gas has had a positive impact in four areas:

Natural Gas and Oil Pipeline Projects

Natural gas and oil pipelines (midstream) have had a resurgence of activity, both proposed and built. To be sure there have been and continue to be strong challenges by environmental organizations. However, many pipelines have gone forward and others have been suspended because of economics rather than protest.

The U.S. went from an importer to an exporter of liquified natural gas. (Source: The Globe and Mail)

New LNG Facilities

LNG exports are a new phenomenon for the US. For years the US faced a deficit in natural gas, leading to proposals for nearly 40 LNG import facilities. Fortunately, most of them were not built, and those that were have largely become LNG export terminals. These required massive capital investment across the value chain. Greenfield facilities are now planned or under construction in multiple locations.

Expansion of Pipelines to Mexico

Pipeline gas to Mexico is little noticed by the public but the expansion has been dramatic. Despite the liberalization of the energy system in Mexico the demand for natural gas for industry and consumers, especially in Northern Mexico, is likely to continue. There is even talk about an LNG export terminal in Mexico’s Baja peninsula, to be supplied from US sources. The shadow over this is anti-immigrant policies of the Trump Administration and uncertainties related to the renegotiation of the NAFTA trade agreement. There is concern that the upcoming Presidential election in Mexico will result in an anti-US tide that might impact progress on the energy value chain.

Resurgence of the Petrochemical Industry

The petrochemical industry in the US has had a resurgence with low-cost natural gas. Approximately USD 100 billion of investment is currently underway or recently completed in the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast.

What we see here are currents moving in very different directions in the extended and complex energy supply chain in the US and internationally.

What does this mean for the steel industry?

Pipelines

Steel is literally the backbone of the US oil and gas system. Hundreds of thousands of miles of pipelines form a complex web across the continental US, in Alaska, to Canada and Mexico, and out to the Gulf of Mexico. Though mostly unseen, these pipelines enable the production and consumption of resources reliably and at affordable prices. New activity will be limited in the Gulf of Mexico for some time, with most of it focused on completing projects that were already underway. There may be some new activity in Mexican waters in the Gulf as the political opening there results in development, much of it in proximity to known fields on the US side of the border.

For example the Keystone XL pipeline, planned to bring more heavy oil from Canada, has been contentious for years for a variety of reasons including the higher carbon content of the crude and the route of the pipeline. Opponents have recently adopted a new strategy suggesting that the project is no longer economic – this is a way to undermine political support. TransCanada, the developer, insists that it is viable and on track. However, in Canada itself, plans have been abandoned for a massive oil pipeline to connect the producing area of Alberta in Western Canada to the east coast.

The Keystone XL pipeline was planned to bring heavy oil from Canada to the U.S. (Source: Horizon Supply Company)

Platforms

The offshore industry has been a major user of steel, both for platforms often built in Korea, and also for the related supply chain. Capital investment has been hardest hit in this area, and may not resume for 3-5 years until global demand increases and production growth slows.

LNG Facilities

LNG is a relative bright spot. The value chain includes the production of gas, transportation to newly-built liquefaction facilities, LNG ships, and import/regasification facilities. Lithuania recently built an LNG import facility to promote its independence from Russia. In other cases, majors like Shell, are now discussing building infrastructure in countries as diverse as South Africa and Vietnam so that they can become gas users. Japan shut its nuclear facilities after Fukushima and has been slow to reopen them. It lacks a domestic pipeline system because of the mountainous terrain and has relied on two dozen LNG import terminals. Will that create demand for new facilities?

An interesting twist is that Kinder Morgan, a leading pipeline company, has defined itself more broadly as an energy transfer organization. It had been frustrated in trying to build a natural gas pipeline from the Marcellus field in Pennsylvania to Boston, where natural gas prices are often the highest in the US. So they have decided to build LNG vessels to transport gas from terminals in Louisiana and Texas to Boston, despite restrictions imposed by the protective Jones Act that requires US vessels and crews for transport between US destinations.

LNG vessels transport LNG between terminals. (Source: World Maritime News)

Shale Gas Wells

The US shale play has been compared to a manufacturing process. Traditional development wells were expected to produce gas for years and oil sometimes for decades. But the fracking operations have a rapid decline curve which means that companies are constantly drilling new horizontal wells and are doing so for greater lengths. More than a dozen horizontal wells may stretch from a single pad. Budgets are now focused on cash flow, which means spending less on acquiring leases and more to produce oil – this results in more spending on steel.

Crude Oil Vessels

The US is now exporting about 2 million barrels of oil per day. US producers had been largely banned from exporting oil until two years ago when outdated legislation was changed. Increased domestic production and the ability to export dramatically changed shipping patterns. Nigeria had been a major exporter to the US but has forfeited the market. Saudi Aramco bought out Shell’s interest in the Motiva joint venture and took complete control of the Port Arthur refinery, the largest in the US. Many observers believe this was to assure a market for Saudi crude. Thus increased trade in oil and shifting markets may create demand for new vessels.

Petrochemical Facilities

Finally, low-cost natural gas has been a constant in the US. In addition to the new construction of petrochemical facilities along the US Gulf Coast mentioned previously, it adds the potential for a reindustrialization of the US economy that was unimaginable just a few years ago. This can cut across many industries for which power costs are a major factor. This may seem inconsistent with e-commerce, but the two may go together as mega distribution centers are built so that a growing fleet of trucks can provide same-day delivery to consumers.

There are many paradoxes in the American energy system and supply chain. For the steel industry, the key is to determine where those opportunities are located.

Bill Arnold is a professor in the practice of energy management at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. Previously, Arnold was Royal Dutch Shell’s Washington director of international government relations and senior counsel for the Middle East, Latin America and North Africa for 16 years.

Cover photo courtesy of Petroleum Economist.