So, what happened to the EVs of the past, and how can the world prevent them from going the way of the dodo bird for yet a second time in history?

The Golden Age of Electric Vehicles

The first EV hybrid car was made in 1901 by Ferdinand Porsche, and by 1917, 38 percent of the cars on US roads were EVs, 40 percent were steam-powered cars and the remaining 22 percent were gasoline-fueled.

Porsche recreated the Semper Vivus, the first hybrid EV made by Ferdinand Porsche. (Source: Super Street)

At the time, horse-drawn carriages were the norm, and people were desperate to solve the “pollution problem,” meaning pollution in the form of horse droppings. Even then, EVs were seen as the solution for a clean environment, and from 1895 to 1920, 50 companies were producing EVs. However, gasoline-powered vehicles were also a viable option and increased in number along with EVs as more highways were built and people and goods started to travel greater distances.

A woman cranks her car on the streets of New York in 1923. (Source: Pinterest)

EVs had an initial advantage over gasoline cars for several reasons. They were more environmentally friendly, or the exhaust didn’t give off an awful smell, were less noisy and easier to drive. The shortcomings of gasoline cars also played a factor. Gasoline cars had to be started manually, or “cranked,” every time, making them laborsome and even dangerous to drive. Although they had better range, gasoline cars also broke down more often. The tables quickly turned.

SEE ALSO: Why Electrical Steel Can Make All The Difference In EV Motors

The Rise of Gasoline and Ford

The company that led the rise and dominance of gasoline cars was Ford and its Model T vehicles that sold for USD 650 versus EVs that sold for around USD 3000. When Ford mastered mass production with assembly lines, the company turned out 1,670,000 vehicles in 1923.

Ford’s Model T sold in the 1920s pioneered the normalization of gasoline cars.(Source: Think Link)

Another key turning point for gasoline cars was when Charles Kettering invented the electric ignition in 1915. Drivers no longer had to start their cars manually, one of the reasons gasoline cars were not popular, especially among women.

As more highways were built, there was a demand for greater range that EVs just could not meet, especially when gas stations were cheaper to build than charging stations. Plus, there was no standardized plug for different EV models. Later on, when gasoline cars came equipped with exhaust-control devices that reduced the amount of harmful emissions, people were sold and EVs could no longer compete. EVs made a short resurgence back in the 1970s due to the global oil crisis, but by the 1980s, EVs were almost obsolete.

Back to the Future

Today, it seems as if history is repeating itself. There is a sense of urgency worldwide to tackle the pollution problem – except this time it’s not horse droppings.

In ten years between 2005 and 2015, the number of EVs went from hundreds to a million. Then, in 2016, there was a 60 percent increase in the global number of EVs, and the numbers are projected to grow exponentially. Many countries are backing the switch to electric fuel through tighter regulations on emissions and even completely banning gasoline and/or diesel cars.

Many countries around the world are now banning gasoline and diesel-fueled cars. (Source: Quartz)

Despite the rapid growth, EVs still make up just 1 percent of the global fleet of cars. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there need to be 150 million EVs by 2030 and 1 billion by 2050 to contain global warming within 2 degrees Celsius.

For widespread EV adoption, manufacturers, suppliers and policymakers alike can pick up some hints from the past.

SEE ALSO: Ask an Expert: Electric Vehicles and the Future of the Automotive Market

Takeaways

EV manufacturers of the past and present have not found a cure for drivers’ range anxiety. It’s a scenario that likely crosses the mind of any driver considering an EV; running out of juice with no charging station in sight.

A study by MIT shows that range anxiety is irrational because most people drive just 45 miles a day, well under the range of today’s EVs.

The range of today’s EVs. (Source: Vox)

A well-organized charging infrastructure is vital not only for drivers with range anxiety, but also for car companies and those in the charging business. Charging equipment is costly and stakeholders need to know there will be enough demand to make a return on their investment, but drivers are more likely to make the switch after a charging ecosystem matures. The dilemma calls for a collaborative effort among automakers, policymakers and companies like POSCO.

POSCO ICT’s ChargEV

POSCO ICT is an IT and engineering company looking to relieve range anxiety and take a holistic approach to establishing a charging infrastructure in Korea for a greener future. In partnership with various automakers, businesses and the government, POSCO ICT set up more than 300 charging stations in Korea and oversees many more private charging stations within its network.

There are over 300 POSCO ICT ChargEV stations in Korea. (Source: POSCO ICT)

The charging ecosystem is run through an app called ChargEV where drivers can sign up to get real-time information about charging locations, make reservations and even pay for charges. ChargEV is also a platform for customer support and reporting accidents. In addition, partner companies such as shopping centers and hotels that are now equipped with charging stations stand to benefit from the EV network.

EVs are, once again, a major disruptive factor in the automotive market and the future of private transportation. This time around, the stakes are much higher than pungent streets. As more countries and companies commit to reducing harmful emissions, the number of EVs will likely continue to spike. However, if stakeholders can learn a thing or two from the past, it’s that establishing a holistic charging ecosystem will have as much of an impact on EV adoption as the technological advancements of the vehicles themselves.

Cover photo courtesy of SCMP

Stephen Zoepf is the executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University.

To kick off the forum, Stephen Zoepf, executive director at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University gave a presentation called “Electric Vehicles: Adapting to a Changing Marketplace” to share his insights on what future markets will look like and implications for automakers, suppliers as well as consumers.  

Here are the key takeaways.

The Future is Going to Look Very Different

According to a report by RethinkX, an independent research group, 6 trillion U.S. passenger miles will be driven in 2030, up 50 percent from 2021. Of those miles, 95 percent will be driven in self-driving, electric and shared vehicles and only 5 percent of those miles will be driven by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

The report goes on to say that autonomous EVs (A-EV) will make up 60 percent of the U.S vehicle stock, and those vehicles will be part of a shared-mobility service. As more people start to share cars, the overall number of vehicles on U.S. roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

SEE ALSO: Going Autonomous: The Transformation of the Transportation Industry

The change is already happening. In 2016, shared-mobility companies such as Uber and Lyft drove 500,000 passengers per day in New York City, which is triple the number of passengers from 2015. Today, more and more automakers like Tesla and GM are also entering the shared-mobility market.

EVs are already becoming prominent in major cities around the world. (Source: Time)

The findings illustrate a future where people drive more miles with fewer cars, which are fueled by electricity, and shared instead of owned. It’s a radical visualization of the future, but one that is driven by economic forces.

By 2021, shared vehicles will be 4 to 10 times cheaper per mile than private vehicles, and American households will save an average of USD 5600 every year by switching to shared EVs from cars fueled by gas, according to RethinkX.

Zoepf shared another report by ARK investment Management which echoes the finding above- in the next ten years, people will drive three times more kilometers using half the number of cars and the number of EVs on the road will increase 10 fold.

What It Means for Car Manufacturers and Suppliers

A shrinking vehicle fleet consisting of mostly EVs can only mean one thing: a major disruption to the current automotive market.  

Right now, the average lifecycle of a car in the U.S. is 11 years. However, the majority of a car’s total mileage is driven in its early years. It’s the same for shared vehicles, but they are driven about 80,000- 90,000 km per year, 10 times the distance of privately-owned cars. What this shows is a compression of the vehicle lifespan in its first 3 to 4 years.

These statistics pose critical concerns for automakers.

Will overall vehicle sales decrease in the coming future? According to Zoepf, that’s the wrong question to ask. Instead, automakers should be asking “will I make money?” Automakers have a couple of choices. They can either adapt early on and manufacture EVs and/or A-EVs at a competitive price, or become a shared-mobility provider. Early movers such as Tesla, GM and Volvo are already shifting their business strategies to fit these models.

GM recently launched Maven, a car-sharing service. (Source: The Verge)

Another question to ask is how these trends will affect vehicle design. With shortened vehicle life-cycles, manufacturers can either design cars to last only 3 to 4 years for quick replacements, or opt for the aviation model where the vehicle will be built to last, but the interior parts, such as seats, will be replaced frequently. Whatever route manufactures choose to take, gaining a competitive edge in vehicle and service quality early on will be key.

What Will This Mean for Vehicle Material Suppliers?

If building cars to last is no longer a primary priority, will car makers downgrade their materials? The short answer is not a chance.

Through a customer survey study Zoepf conducted of 60,000 Zipcar customers, he showed that the number one factor when choosing a car is safety. However, there is no one, ideal model or type of car that is preferred in a shared mobility framework. The purpose of the trip determines the type of vehicle, and the success of a shared mobility service provider will depend on the variety of cars it can provide – all with competitive safety ratings.

POSCO ICT already has ChargEV stations set up across Korea. (Source: POSCO ICT)

The supplier’s role will be to continue providing high-quality materials that can boost the safety and cost competitiveness of future vehicles. Steel suppliers have to keep developing lightweight and high-strength steels like POSCO GIGA STEEL, and research new materials that can boost the competitiveness of EVs such as POSCO’s Hyper NO for motor cores, battery materials and POSCO ICT’s EV charging service and infrastructure.

There remain numerous challenges that lie ahead for a greener and safer future with EVs and A-EVs, and it might take longer than experts predict for lawmakers, corporations and consumers to all agree on an optimal mobility model. However, change is already underway and automakers and suppliers alike need to strategize and adapt early on to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities.

For more information on how advanced automotive steel can benefit automakers looking for lightweight and sustainable steel solutions, take a look at our infographic on POSCO GIGA STEEL or read the full report here. 

Cover photo courtesy of GOV.UK.

Each year, GM Mexico evaluates its partners on 13 criterion, including process, quality and delivery for the Quality Excellence Awards.  

Gabriela Ruiz Osorio, POSCO-MPPC 2 plant manager, and Tae-hyun Yoon, head of POSCO-MPPC, receive the Supplier for Quality Excellence Award from GM Mexico

POSCO-MPPC received the highest grades in all areas of evaluation and was the only recipient in the local steel materials processing and supply category.

Over the years, POSCO-MPPC and GM Mexico have worked closely together to meet project deadlines and maintain a high standard of product quality. On one occasion, POSCO-MPPC dispatched a team of engineers to the GM San Luis Potosi (GM SLP) plant to address quality issues and quickly resolved defects in cooperation with the Technical Service Center (TSC). As a result, POSCO-MPPC received zero Problem Reporting & Resolutions (PRRs) and parts per million (PPM).

POSCO-MPPC produces and supplies as many as 43 blank products, including outer body plates for use in compact sedans and SUVs such as GM SLP’s main production models, the TRAX and AVEO.

Going forward, POSCO-MPPC hopes to establish itself as a global automotive steel plate supplier and continue to secure orders in the Mexican market. POSCO-MPPC is also planning to capitalize on its quality competitiveness to increase sales and reinforce its status as the best steel processing corporation in North America.

POSCO-MPPC has come a long way since the completion of its Plant 1 with a 170,000-ton capacity in Puebla in 2007. It then completed Plant 2, also with a 170,000-ton capacity in San Luis Potosi in 2008, and Plant 3 with a 130,000-ton capacity in Celaya in 2013.

It continued to expand in 2016 when it merged with MAPC, a processing corporation exclusively for Nissan Motor Corporation, and increased the blanking capabilities of Plant 3.

Currently, POSCO-MPPC provides premium-quality steel to its partners with an annual processing capacity of 630,000 tons.

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