Chatbot is one of the latest and popular technology not only adopted by chat-based services but through a multitude of competing industries such as Web portals, shopping malls, and manufacturers. As such, big changes are is in progress with its continued adoption. Among the services, a work support chatbot is especially notable for fostering convenient and smart working culture.

It is not a easy to improve the long-established working style in bigger corporations. Yet the adoption of chatbot technology encourages  improvements in efficiency that are unexpected. POSCO and its employees anticipate its role in the work culture. 

POSCO is rather open to adopting its work support chatbot services. The trial run of “People Search” chatbot service took place August last year. Since June this year, its function was upgraded along with the add-ons of document and email search services.

What is the reason for its adoption and what makes it so special? POSCO Newsroom met with developer (Min-ju Cha, Deputy Head of POSCO ICT) and planner (Min-ho Shin, Deputy Head of POSCO Information Planning Dept.) for an interview designed with POSCO’s actual chatbot chat window below.

The Demographic Cliff

Economic forecaster and author of “The Demographic Cliff,” Harry Dent, says people between the ages of 45 and 49 are typically the heads of families and spend the most money on things like housing, cars and appliances. As populations age, fewer people will make up the prime spending age group of 45 to 49, and there will be a drop in consumption. Dent calls this the “demographic cliff,” or the “consumption cliff”. The world has seen proof of this theory in places like Japan, Western Europe and the U.S., where economic downturn has come at times of a population downturn.

The Japanese stock market crashed in the early 90s, and they have yet to fully recover. (Source: Huffington Post)

Japan, for example, was one of the first nations to experience a demographic cliff in the early 90s. It was also the time when its stocks and real estate prices fell 60 percent. Those prices never rebounded. Since then, the country has spiraled into debt (the world’s highest at 246 percent of GDP) with an increasingly aging workforce and stagnant economy. From 2010 to 2015, Japan’s population decreased by almost 1 million people, and the government is working to prevent the population from falling below 100 million by 2060.

The U.S. 2008 Financial Crisis came shortly after its demographic cliff. (Source: Reuters)

Dent also argued that the American baby boomers of the early 60s peaked in 2007, at their highest spending age, and then the economy experienced a downturn, in the form of the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, the U.S. government has added USD 8.4 trillion in debt. Although the reasons for the 2008 crisis are complex, Dent does prove a point: demographics have a huge impact on economics.

Falling Steel Consumption

As it was with Japan and the U.S., consumption will decrease in industries critical to the steel market. In Japan, steel consumption decreased 81 percent from 1995. According to a report by POSCO Research Institute, construction accounts for 42 percent of total steel demand and the auto industry accounts for 18.5 percent. Decreased spending on homes and cars due to the demographic cliff will have a significant impact on the steel industry. Decreased demand in other industries such as machinery and home appliances will also affect steel demand.

The construction industry will be the hardest-hit by a demographic cliff. (Source: CNBC)

Moreover, manufacturers will be faced with the problem of a shrinking workforce. Those entering the workforce will do so with the burden of sustaining government programs with a larger portion of their paychecks, and employers will start to notice the gaps not only in age but experience and skill as well. With fewer people entering the workforce, employers will be forced to outsource jobs and governments may factor in more lenient immigration policies to fill the gaps.

How can Steelmakers Prepare for the Future?

Although there is no quick solution to the aging population and low birthrates, steelmakers can start preparing for a demographic cliff in two ways. Enter markets with growing populations and introduce smart technology to fill the human labor gap.

In developing countries in Asia and Africa, there are little signs of population and economic stagnation. As those countries invest in their infrastructure and start to consume more homes, cars and appliances, steel will be in high demand, more than those countries can produce domestically.

India’s solar energy industry will lead to an increase in demand for steel. (Source: WLE)

India is one of the countries with a growing population. The government is undergoing numerous projects to boost its economy and prepare for growth, including the project to boost its solar energy market. The Indian government has plans to invest USD 100 billion and 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity for the country by 2022. Steel is a vital part of solar panels and suppliers like POSCO are already partnering with Indian firms to provide the leading material and technology for India to meet its growing renewable energy demand. POSCO also has partnerships in the U.S., Bangladesh, Myanmar, Uzbekistan and more to help each country fill their supply gaps.

In order to fill the domestic labor shortage, POSCO is incorporating leading AI technology, IoT and big data to its smart factories.

It is true that today’s developed nations have reached, or are heading towards a demographic cliff. Japan is a classic example of how detrimental a shrinking and aging population can be for a country’s economy. Governments and industries have to start factoring in demographics to their long-term strategies and plan for a changing future.     

Cover photo courtesy of 24×7 Daily.

With the emergence of the 4th industrial revolution as a hot topic of the world economy, AI is expected to drive manufacturing innovation by providing breakthroughs in smart factories.

POSCO Smart factory in Gwangyang

In his recent POSCO Issue Report, Kim Ho-In, a senior researcher at POSRI, examined what innovations AI can bring to the upgrowth of smart factories, and identified key issues related to such technological introductions.

Smart Factory Takes Wing with AI

Kim looked at how AI will provide breakthroughs in areas of manufacturing, such as preventive system maintenance, process control, expert process control and robot automation, and how AI  will make smart factories more efficient, less wasteful and more productive.

Traditional stock, inventory and statistical analysis provided insufficient information for preventing factory defaults, and made certain failures inevitable. With AI, however, factories can predict quality deficiency, gather and analyze complex data and improve equipment reliability. Also, by integrating such intelligence with robots, there are now self-learning, versatile beings that can automatically overhaul and optimize system defaults.

Thus the ability to self-teach, analyze and create will lead to a more comprehensive statistical analysis and achieve positive results in preventive maintenance.

The Right Kind of Smart

The different innovative tools in smart factories, however, may have distinct values depending on its application for the industry in question, so while such technological advances may be a breakthrough for manufacturing, companies must apply the tools that are most effective for their field and industry.

AI that can self-teach, analyze and create in a smart factory

For instance, the technology required for “smartization” is entirely different for assembly process industries such as parts production, automotive and electronics, than from mechanisms industries such as metals, chemicals and energy.

In the assembly process industries, customizing production, cutting labor costs and responding to the fast life cycle of products are the major areas for innovation. AI applications like robot automation can guarantee positive results because many production processes can be replaced with robots, resulting in minimized labor costs.

In the process equipment industries, however, improving productivity through optimal control of core processes, controlling the linkage between processes and maintaining the facility are the major issues. The loss of data can be extremely critical in the case of a core facility failure, so preventive equipment maintenance would have a greater impact than robot automation.

The investment size and outcome value for implementation and innovation of smart factories will differ by industry. Thus it is necessary to build up strategies on technologies that are most suitable for each required field.

Smart Reconstruction

Recently, the world’s fifth largest blast furnace located in Pohang Works, went through major renovations to “go smart”. The Pohang Blast Furnace No.3 was first fired up in 1978 with an internal volume of 3795㎥, and was repaired in 1989, 2006 and finally in 2017, when it leaped toward POSCO’s vision of “smartization”.

After a 102-day repair period, the furnace volume expanded to 5600㎥, and the site is now fully equipped with AI to precisely monitor the condition of the blast furnace.

The Blast Furnace No.3 dismantled at the start of the repairing process

Engineers, including Gi Wan Son, Blast Furnace No.3 Repair Quality PJT team leader, worked on all three renovations and provided exceptional knowledge based on more than 40 years of experience with the Blast Furnace No.3. According to Son, the main focus was to build a smart technology infrastructure that utilizes AI and collects big data.

POSCO added smart sensors that automatically monitor the internal state of the blast furnace such as raw material quality and ventilator status. Both measures are expected to help forecast and extend the lifespan of the blast furnace to longer than the average period of 15 years.

[clickToTweet tweet=”POSCO Blast Furnace No.3 will lead the future of  blast furnaces for another 50 years if we incorporate POSCO’s advanced technologies” – Gi Wan Son, Blast Furnace No.3 Repair Quality PJT team leader” quote=”POSCO Blast Furnace No.3 will lead the future of  blast furnaces for another 50 years if we incorporate POSCO’s advanced technologies” – Gi Wan Son, Blast Furnace No.3 Repair Quality PJT team leader” theme=”style6″]

Though in its early stages, AI has already had a significant impact on smart factories and further innovations are expected. The manufacturing industry needs to pay close attention to the future scope of AI development and how it will allow them to overcome existing challenges and open doors to a limitless future.

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