The Demographic Cliff

Economic forecaster and author of “The Demographic Cliff,” Harry Dent, says people between the ages of 45 and 49 are typically the heads of families and spend the most money on things like housing, cars and appliances. As populations age, fewer people will make up the prime spending age group of 45 to 49, and there will be a drop in consumption. Dent calls this the “demographic cliff,” or the “consumption cliff”. The world has seen proof of this theory in places like Japan, Western Europe and the U.S., where economic downturn has come at times of a population downturn.

The Japanese stock market crashed in the early 90s, and they have yet to fully recover. (Source: Huffington Post)

Japan, for example, was one of the first nations to experience a demographic cliff in the early 90s. It was also the time when its stocks and real estate prices fell 60 percent. Those prices never rebounded. Since then, the country has spiraled into debt (the world’s highest at 246 percent of GDP) with an increasingly aging workforce and stagnant economy. From 2010 to 2015, Japan’s population decreased by almost 1 million people, and the government is working to prevent the population from falling below 100 million by 2060.

The U.S. 2008 Financial Crisis came shortly after its demographic cliff. (Source: Reuters)

Dent also argued that the American baby boomers of the early 60s peaked in 2007, at their highest spending age, and then the economy experienced a downturn, in the form of the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, the U.S. government has added USD 8.4 trillion in debt. Although the reasons for the 2008 crisis are complex, Dent does prove a point: demographics have a huge impact on economics.

Falling Steel Consumption

As it was with Japan and the U.S., consumption will decrease in industries critical to the steel market. In Japan, steel consumption decreased 81 percent from 1995. According to a report by POSCO Research Institute, construction accounts for 42 percent of total steel demand and the auto industry accounts for 18.5 percent. Decreased spending on homes and cars due to the demographic cliff will have a significant impact on the steel industry. Decreased demand in other industries such as machinery and home appliances will also affect steel demand.

The construction industry will be the hardest-hit by a demographic cliff. (Source: CNBC)

Moreover, manufacturers will be faced with the problem of a shrinking workforce. Those entering the workforce will do so with the burden of sustaining government programs with a larger portion of their paychecks, and employers will start to notice the gaps not only in age but experience and skill as well. With fewer people entering the workforce, employers will be forced to outsource jobs and governments may factor in more lenient immigration policies to fill the gaps.

How can Steelmakers Prepare for the Future?

Although there is no quick solution to the aging population and low birthrates, steelmakers can start preparing for a demographic cliff in two ways. Enter markets with growing populations and introduce smart technology to fill the human labor gap.

In developing countries in Asia and Africa, there are little signs of population and economic stagnation. As those countries invest in their infrastructure and start to consume more homes, cars and appliances, steel will be in high demand, more than those countries can produce domestically.

India’s solar energy industry will lead to an increase in demand for steel. (Source: WLE)

India is one of the countries with a growing population. The government is undergoing numerous projects to boost its economy and prepare for growth, including the project to boost its solar energy market. The Indian government has plans to invest USD 100 billion and 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity for the country by 2022. Steel is a vital part of solar panels and suppliers like POSCO are already partnering with Indian firms to provide the leading material and technology for India to meet its growing renewable energy demand. POSCO also has partnerships in the U.S., Bangladesh, Myanmar, Uzbekistan and more to help each country fill their supply gaps.

In order to fill the domestic labor shortage, POSCO is incorporating leading AI technology, IoT and big data to its smart factories.

It is true that today’s developed nations have reached, or are heading towards a demographic cliff. Japan is a classic example of how detrimental a shrinking and aging population can be for a country’s economy. Governments and industries have to start factoring in demographics to their long-term strategies and plan for a changing future.     

Cover photo courtesy of 24×7 Daily.

According to research by McKinsey, approximately 51 percent of all job-related activities in the U.S. can be replaced by robots. Another recent research conducted by PwC shows that 40 percent of jobs in the U.S., 31 percent in the UK, 35 percent in Germany and 21 percent of the jobs in Tokyo are vulnerable to replacement by robotics or other artificial intelligence (AI).

An imagined image of an all-robot workforce (Source: Digital News Asia)

The figures are daunting, but in practice, companies have yet to realize a fully-automated system that matches human labor. The truth is, humans need robots to take over mundane and physically demanding tasks, while people take on creative and innovative roles in the workplace. What is more likely is a shift in workplace dynamics, not a decrease in the overall number of jobs available. Today, most companies have automated their systems to varying degrees, and robots are continually being upgraded.

The Human-Robot Collaboration

Last year, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) published ISO/TS 15066, the safety standards for collaborative robots, or cobots that work in the same workplace as humans simultaneously. Before, it was common to find robots restrained in cages, or shut off while human workers loaded equipment onto the robots. Now, with enhanced sensors and diverse power settings, the safety risks of working with cobots are low. To add, many industries are embracing cobots over traditional industrial robots that work alone, because cobots are less expensive and require much less energy to operate.     

A welder gets help from a cobot

Not only are they a sustainable solution for companies, they increase workers’ productivity. According to Business World, Julie Shah and her team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology conducted a study looking at human-robot collaborations at a BMW plant. She found higher levels of productivity, efficiency and performance when humans and robots collaborate in comparison to all-human or all-robot systems. Collaboration also reduced human idle time by 85 percent. Many argue that this increase in productivity will lead to more business and eventually create more jobs that revolve around working with cobots.

The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) found that robot-driven productivity accounted for 10 percent of total GDP growth in OECD countries from 1993 to 2016, and that number will continue to grow in the coming years. The IFR predicts worldwide usage of industrial robots to reach 2.6 million by 2019. That’s one million more robots than in 2015.

Cobots are already making their way into factories and warehouses, and human workers are learning to work with their new counterparts.

Auto Industry

The automotive industry is one of the most common places to find cobots as major automakers were early movers in incorporating robotics into the workforce. That’s why it’s the perfect place to observe the changing dynamics of the workplace with cobots. At Ford’s new production facility, cobots work shoulder to shoulder with the production team in what they call a blended solution. Mostly, cobots have taken over repetitive tasks, physically demanding or dangerous tasks and freed up workers to focus on new innovations and creative projects. The facility runs 21 hours a day, 6 days a week thanks to around 550 cobots and robots.

Take a look at the new working dynamics at Ford below:

Food Industry

The food industry is another sector ripe for human-cobot collaboration, especially in the packaging sector. However, pizza restaurant Zume is changing the delivery pizza experience with automated technology. Cobots have taken over tasks such as spreading the sauce and lifting the pies into the oven. They will be implementing more robot technology to free up kitchen staff to work in their offices for business expansion. Another addition to come is a delivery truck equipped with 50 ovens that will start cooking the pizzas based on exactly calculated arrival times.

Watch the video below to find out more about what Zume is working on:

E-Commerce Industry   

Amazon is another early mover that introduced 15,000 cobots named Kiva to their warehouses in 2014. Two years prior in 2012, they bought Kiva Systems, a robotics company, for USD 775 million. Since then, the number of cobot employees has tripled.

Here’s how it works. Human employees scan items and place them into the shelf-like pods. Instantly, the scanned item is available to purchase online. Kiva’s software keeps track of where each item is so that it can easily be found at the picking station, where a human employee retrieves the product for shipping. Amazon managed to rapidly increase efficiency and speed up delivery times with Kiva. They continue to incorporate AI into their services, including their drone delivery system.

Take a look at Kiva in action in the video below:

Healthcare Industry

In the healthcare industry, cobots are being incorporated to assist doctors in surgery and lighten the burden of caregivers by taking over mundane tasks. Pairing cobots and their software technology with doctors has several benefits including minimized invasiveness, exactness and reduced mistakes in surgical procedures. To date, AI and cobots have allowed doctors to access new parts of the human body for surgery, and achieve breakthrough feats the way they examine, monitor and operate on patients.

Take a look at the most innovative cobots to date in the healthcare industry:

Steel Industry

POSCO is a leader in applying AI to the steel production systems. In 2015, they developed an exoskeleton cobot designed to enable workers strength beyond their own. The cobot is made of carbon fiber, aluminum and steel, and was first tested with Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, at their facility in Okpo-dong. The cobot enabled shipyard workers to easily lift heavy pieces of metal weighing around 70 pounds, and researchers are working to allow workers to lift up to 200 pounds effortlessly.

Watch the video to find out more:

Aside from cobots, POSCO also incorporates AI and IoT into their smart factory, the first smart steel factory in the world, and continues to research and develop smart solutions to optimize the production processes.

Continued automation and the incorporation of cobots in the workplace is inevitable, and governments and institutions will have to provide resources for people to fill jobs tailored to working with cobots or those that cannot be replaced in any way by robots and AI. What’s ahead is figuring out how to think of cobots as coworkers that will only enhance one’s work. Also, companies have to figure out how to fully realize the potential for increased economic productivity through this type of cobot co-work that will lead to the development of more innovations, technology and ultimately, new business ventures.

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