The Demographic Cliff

Economic forecaster and author of “The Demographic Cliff,” Harry Dent, says people between the ages of 45 and 49 are typically the heads of families and spend the most money on things like housing, cars and appliances. As populations age, fewer people will make up the prime spending age group of 45 to 49, and there will be a drop in consumption. Dent calls this the “demographic cliff,” or the “consumption cliff”. The world has seen proof of this theory in places like Japan, Western Europe and the U.S., where economic downturn has come at times of a population downturn.

The Japanese stock market crashed in the early 90s, and they have yet to fully recover. (Source: Huffington Post)

Japan, for example, was one of the first nations to experience a demographic cliff in the early 90s. It was also the time when its stocks and real estate prices fell 60 percent. Those prices never rebounded. Since then, the country has spiraled into debt (the world’s highest at 246 percent of GDP) with an increasingly aging workforce and stagnant economy. From 2010 to 2015, Japan’s population decreased by almost 1 million people, and the government is working to prevent the population from falling below 100 million by 2060.

The U.S. 2008 Financial Crisis came shortly after its demographic cliff. (Source: Reuters)

Dent also argued that the American baby boomers of the early 60s peaked in 2007, at their highest spending age, and then the economy experienced a downturn, in the form of the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, the U.S. government has added USD 8.4 trillion in debt. Although the reasons for the 2008 crisis are complex, Dent does prove a point: demographics have a huge impact on economics.

Falling Steel Consumption

As it was with Japan and the U.S., consumption will decrease in industries critical to the steel market. In Japan, steel consumption decreased 81 percent from 1995. According to a report by POSCO Research Institute, construction accounts for 42 percent of total steel demand and the auto industry accounts for 18.5 percent. Decreased spending on homes and cars due to the demographic cliff will have a significant impact on the steel industry. Decreased demand in other industries such as machinery and home appliances will also affect steel demand.

The construction industry will be the hardest-hit by a demographic cliff. (Source: CNBC)

Moreover, manufacturers will be faced with the problem of a shrinking workforce. Those entering the workforce will do so with the burden of sustaining government programs with a larger portion of their paychecks, and employers will start to notice the gaps not only in age but experience and skill as well. With fewer people entering the workforce, employers will be forced to outsource jobs and governments may factor in more lenient immigration policies to fill the gaps.

How can Steelmakers Prepare for the Future?

Although there is no quick solution to the aging population and low birthrates, steelmakers can start preparing for a demographic cliff in two ways. Enter markets with growing populations and introduce smart technology to fill the human labor gap.

In developing countries in Asia and Africa, there are little signs of population and economic stagnation. As those countries invest in their infrastructure and start to consume more homes, cars and appliances, steel will be in high demand, more than those countries can produce domestically.

India’s solar energy industry will lead to an increase in demand for steel. (Source: WLE)

India is one of the countries with a growing population. The government is undergoing numerous projects to boost its economy and prepare for growth, including the project to boost its solar energy market. The Indian government has plans to invest USD 100 billion and 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity for the country by 2022. Steel is a vital part of solar panels and suppliers like POSCO are already partnering with Indian firms to provide the leading material and technology for India to meet its growing renewable energy demand. POSCO also has partnerships in the U.S., Bangladesh, Myanmar, Uzbekistan and more to help each country fill their supply gaps.

In order to fill the domestic labor shortage, POSCO is incorporating leading AI technology, IoT and big data to its smart factories.

It is true that today’s developed nations have reached, or are heading towards a demographic cliff. Japan is a classic example of how detrimental a shrinking and aging population can be for a country’s economy. Governments and industries have to start factoring in demographics to their long-term strategies and plan for a changing future.     

Cover photo courtesy of 24×7 Daily.

The 2008 Financial Crisis was a blow to the global automotive industry and its suppliers. It took years to recover, but the economy did start showing signs of growth. McKinsey&Company’s 2013 report, The road to 2020 and beyond: What’s driving the global automotive industry, painted a positive picture of the global automotive market with profits projected to reach EUR 79 billion by 2020, up from EUR 54 billion in 2012, with China responsible for 60 percent of profits.

Their 2016 report, Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030, offered a similar outlook. Overall global car sales will continue to grow, but at about a 2 percent growth rate, down 1.6 percent from the last five years. New market trends such as electric/autonomous vehicles, shared mobility and stricter environmental regulations will disrupt the market with new challenges and opportunities, but what remains constant is that the majority of growth in global automotive sales will be lead by the rising middle class of emerging markets, namely in India and China.

Thousands of vehicles are scrapped in the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce emissions. (Source: The Daily Mail)

Subsequently, China reached record vehicle sales in 2016. However, in April 2017, it recorded the lowest number of sales in the past two years for passenger cars, down 3.7 percent from 2015. This follows a national sales tax rise early in 2017 to 7.5 percent, coupled with a general decrease in demand for cars as consumption is reaching a plateau. Moreover, China’s sales tax will increase again to 10 percent in 2018.

India’s Booming Automotive Industry

Unlike China, India’s automotive market shows little signs of slowing down. India is now the world’s fastest growing economy as their GDP is projected to increase by 7.2 percent from 2017 to 2018. Their middle class is estimated to triple by 2025, reaching 89 million households.

The government of India is looking to the automotive industry to lead India’s economic growth, as outlined in its Automotive Mission Plan for 2016-2026 and “Make in India” initiative. Under such plans, the government will work towards creating an additional 65 million jobs in the automotive market and a 500 percent increase in vehicle exports by 2026.

A full parking lot of Renault cars reflects the massive automotive market in India. (Source: The New York Times)

It’s no surprise that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is pouring in. From 2000 to 2016, India’s automotive industry alone attracted USD 15.79 billion in FDI. For investors, India’s growing middle class of consumers is as attractive as their vast and low-cost labor.

POSCO Maharashtra in India

POSCO Maharashtra is one automotive supplier that is echoing the growth of the Indian automotive market. Their 2Q17 unaudited earnings report showed significant growth from just a year before in 2016. The reported revenue was USD 331.7 million, compared to USD 174.7 million in 2016. The company’s operating profit was USD 32.6 million, up from USD 3.5 million in 2016. Finally, their net profit was USD 22.9 million, another significant increase from USD 15.9 million in 2016.

*Earnings figures were converted from Korean won to U.S. dollars using August 22, 2017, exchange rates.

The POSCO Maharashtra Plant in India

In May of this year, POSCO Maharashtra signed a MoU with Essar Steel to supply 1.1 million tons of flat steel products during the 2017 fiscal year. This is the second year of partnership between the two companies, but the volume of steel POSCO Maharashtra will supply is 30 percent higher than in 2016.

The growing business reflects the work philosophy of POSCO Maharashtra employees: “If [we] supply quality material, they’ll come back again and again. So that’s what we’re doing right now. Although our products might be priced a bit higher in the Indian market, we are supplying quality material and our customers continue to be loyal because they understand that value.”- Chetan Waghchoure, sales representative for POSCO Maharashtra. Read the full interview here.

POSCO Maharashtra’s Chetan Waghchoure during an interview with The Steel Wire

POSCO Maharashtra is taking full advantage of the thriving automotive industry in India and continues to expand its business by reducing production and inventory costs, increasing performance and efficiency and planning to incorporate AI technology into their future production processes.

Market indicators point to India to drive the profitability of the automotive industry. India’s growing consumption of vehicles, open business environment and vast labor force will continue to attract foreign investment and new businesses. The best part is that India is not even close to being fully developed, meaning brighter prospects for future growth and good news for manufacturers and suppliers.